What Could Stop Putin?

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What's the only real deterrent to a Ukraine invasion by Russian President Vladimir Putin?
If there is war tomorrow or the next day, it will almost certainly be because the Russian President doesn't think Kyiv would exact a heavy human price from Russia's forces for an invasion. US President Joe Biden and multiple European leaders have publicly warned Putin that an invasion would be costly: Diplomatic marginalization and financial sanctions are both on the table, but neither seems to have lured Putin back from the brink of conflict. Potential military costs, in the form of Russian losses on the battlefield, remain as the only viable disincentive that could stop Putin from invading Ukraine again.
On that front, Ukraine's forces are in a stronger position than some may think. Though Ukrainian troops are unlikely to stop a full-scale assault, they are professional and well-tested enough to slow one and, more importantly, to inflict thousands of casualties on Russia.
Ukraine is now ranked the 22nd best military in the world by GlobalFirepower. Russia is second. That's a Cinderella match-up, but it doesn't mean the blue and yellow won't score a lot of points. And crucially, looking at it from such a conventional angle misses the real battlefield truth.Kyiv's strategy, it seems, may well be to fall back and fight an insurgency, à la the Taliban's fight against US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. By all accounts, Ukrainian civil defense units are training hard to resist occupation. A journalist friend of mine who lives on the outskirts of the capital reports that he hears the weapons training every weekend.
The point is, if the Russians suffered losses in 2014 against an amateur Ukrainian force that was also ill-prepared and ill-positioned, it can expect many times more this go around. The question is whether that would make enough of a difference to deter the Russian president.

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