DNN 15 APR 2022

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A brief summary of the Ukrainian energy reserves.

The International Energy Agency, IEA, report for the Ukraine of 2021 states:

Ukraine has a population of 41.9 million and at 603 549 square kilometers is the second-largest country in Europe by area. Located at the crossroads of the European Union, the Russian Federation, and the Black Sea and Caspian regions, Ukraine has abundant mineral resources including oil, natural gas and coal, and great hydro and biomass potential. With its considerable population and high energy consumption, it is one of Europe’s largest energy markets. It is also the country that transits the most natural gas in the world, playing a key role in delivering Russian gas to European markets.

Ukraine experienced a long period of very strong economic growth in 2000-07, owing to low gas prices, a strong national currency, the hryvnia, UAH and high foreign steel demand and prices.

Ukraine underwent two severe economic crises between 2008 and 2017.

In autumn 2008: its economy fell into deep recession in 2009, with real GDP down 14.8 percent and industrial output plummeting almost 22 percent.

Ukraine entered another recession in mid-2012, with GDP growth falling to zero percent in 2013, minus 6.8 percent in 2014 and almost ten percent in 2015.

A strong depreciation of the hryvnia occurred from 8 UAH = 1 USD in December 2013 to 26 UAH = 1 USD in June 2018, with far lower budget revenues and a 24 percent drop in industrial output in 2014-15.

Nearly 65 percent of Ukraine’s total energy demand is covered by domestic production.

Over half of the country’s electricity is produced with nuclear power, and Ukraine and Armenia are the only EU4Energy countries that produce nuclear energy.

Ukraine depends on imports for around 83% of its oil consumption, 33 percent of its natural gas and 50 percent of its coal. In 2018 Ukraine imported 10.6 BCM of natural gas, 13.8 MTOE of coal and 10.4 MTOE of oil products. Belarus is Ukraine’s main supplier of refined products.

The oil sector of several representative countries is shown in Slide1, relative to Russia, which is set at 100 percent.

The natural gas sector of several representative countries is shown in Slide 2, relative to Russia, which is set at 100 percent.

The coal sector of several representative countries is shown in Slide 3, relative to Russia, which is set at 100 percent.

These sectors are repeated in the next slides, which compare only Russia with thee Ukraine.

From these slides, it would appear that the energy resources alone of the Ukraine are an insufficient incentive to launch an invasion of the Ukraine.

IEA Energy Report
https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ac51678f-5069-4495-9551-87040cb0c99d/UkraineEnergyProfile.pdf

World Energy Reports
https://www.worldometers.info/