Daily Video Update for Friday April 29, 2022

Daily Video Update for Friday, April 29, 2022.
Each day the market is open, a video is prepared which analyzes and evaluates current conditions of the S&P 500.
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Daily Video Update
For Friday April 29, 2022
Recap 1: Thursday, April 28, 2022
Open
Gap higher Open to above R1 (4229).
Retraced to the daily pivot (4196).
Midday:
After finding support, prices advanced above R2 (4274).
4300 acted as resistance.
Close
Minimal late day selling.
Closed just off of the high.
Up: 2.47%
Volume:
Above average
Fixation:
Technicals, inflation & interest rates, geopolitical concerns, earnings shocks and surprises.
Market Comments:
Longer-term maturity interest rates advanced with stocks.
Strong advance led by growth stocks. Earnings helped.
Equity P/C Ratio still high.
Technicals negative but improving. Can it continue?
Regained IT support level (4276).
Breadth is improving.
S&P 500 is in correction territory.
Bounced out of ST oversold condition.
10-5 Yield curve inverted again.
Economic Reports:
GDP-Adv: Decline at an annual rate of -1.4% which may suggest stagflation.
Trend Condition:
Negative trend
Trend: Negative. Bias (Positive). Momentum (Mixed/Negative).
Technical Overview:
Growth underperforming Value.
Growth outperforming bond prices.
Energy outperforming SPX/SPY.
Tech underperforming interest rates and SPX/SPY.
CRB outperforming stocks.
Gold outperforming stocks.
Rising interest rates outperforming stocks.
Momentum Indicators still negative.
Moving averages improving but still negative.
New highs/New lows still declining.
Discretionary underperforming staples.
Long-Term trend still declining.
No changes in Chart Variations: All are still negative.
World Indexes continue to decline.
Junk Bonds outperforming Treasury Bonds.
The Day’s Session
Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index
VIX
The VIX of the VIX
Ulcer Index
AAII Survey
Rydex Bear/Bull Ratio
NAAIM Number Survey
Equity Put/Call Ratio
Equity Put/Call Ratio 5 SMA
SPX Sectors
Fed Watch
Fed Watch: May 4 FOMC Meeting
Technical Alerts
Intraday
10-Minute Chart
Daily Pivot Points
Support and Resistance levels
Retracement from High
Trend Analysis
ADX Trend Indicator
AROON
Breadth Analysis
S&P 500 Advance/Decline Ratio
S&P 500 Rate of Change (ROC) 1
S&P 500 Rate of Change (ROC) 5
S&P 500 Rate of Change (ROC) 10
S&P 500 Rate of Change (ROC) 20
S&P 500 Fibonacci Retracement
S&P 500 Standard Deviation (10)
Stochastic Studies
Trading Systems
Elder Impulse System
SAR: Stop and Reverse
Long Term: Months to Years
S&P 500: Arithmetic and Logarithmic Scales
Broad Market: Stocks
DIA
QQQ
Broad Market: Other Markets
US Dollar Index daily and weekly
Japanese Yen, Euro, US Dollar
Light Crude Oil
InterMarket Analysis
Bonds
Yield Curve Studies 10-5 yr
Isabelnet
Potential Scenarios Developing
Coppick Curve
Mass Index
Pring Bottom Fisher
Staples S&P 500 Ratio
S&P 500 2 Year Treasury Yield
Potential Long-term Scenario
1. One more strong thrust up which will likely set a new all-time high.
Likely to be powerful but will not last long.
2. If the US enters a recession, sharp long-term bear market.
Outlook
Technicals: Negative but improving.
The markets remain in a trendless IT range.
Growth vs Value battle
Supply Chain issues
Economic Reports:
Personal Income and Spending, PCE Prices, Q1 Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, and the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment.
Geopolitical events:
Russia/Ukraine. China/Supply Chain. Inflation & Interest rates. Oil. Earnings. Fed Speak. Japan.
Scenarios
1. Down (Negative)
A. Rising interest rates and inflation fears (?).
Earnings and Fed Speak that spooks the markets.
B. Technicals negative but ST improving.
2. Up (Positive)
A. ST and IT oversold. Can the bounce continue?
B. Positive but not currently viable:
- Longer term “bottom signals” could be setting up to generate signals.
- Positive backdrop after yield curves re-invert.
- Staples Ratio spike.
- 2 Yr Yield Spike.
- Small Cap thrust prior to S&P 500 thrust.
B. Technicals: MAs and pivots may provide support/resistance.
3. Sideways: (Neutral)
ADX is above 20, starting to climb and showing a negative trend. Will it fall if there is a rebound?
Price movement slow-down and choppy.
Conclusion
Overview:
The SPX is negative.
Short-Term:
Negative and rebounding from oversold.
Intermediate-Term:
Negative and possibly rebounding from oversold.
Oscillators: negative and below important MAs.
Long-Term:
Negative: Below 200 SMA.
Resources
Stockcharts.com (If you join, enter [email protected] as a referral)
Isabelnet.com
Yardeni.com
YouTube Channels
PensionCraft:
Game of Trades:
Edward Yardeni:
CiovaccoCapital
John Clay
The SPX Investing Program
[email protected]