Daily Video Update for Friday, June 3, 2022.

Each day the market is open, a video is prepared which analyzes and evaluates current conditions of the S&P 500.
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Chapters:
00:00 Introduction, Overview, and Announcements
00:56 Recap
07:21 Sentiment
11:46 Inflation
13:40 Sectors
14:47 Technical Alerts
16:08 Intraday and Daily Charts
17:17 Technical Overview
17:39 Trend Analysis
18:39 Breadth Analysis
20:50 Short Term Analysis
22:15 Intermediate Term Analysis
24:25 Chart Variations
24:41 Trading Systems
24:59 Long Term Analysis
26:09 Broad Market Stocks
26:49 Broad Market Other Markets
29:48 Bonds
30:27 Possible Positive Scenarios
31:24 Outlook
32:38 Scenarios
34:02 Conclusion
Daily Video Update
For Friday June 3, 2022
Recap 1: Thursday, June 2, 2022
Open
Gap lower Open.
Prices went sideways which built a base.
Midday:
Buying entered to take prices positive and above the Daily Pivot (4114).
Buying continued to take prices above R1 (4154)
Close
Prices stayed above R1 and closed at the high.
Up: 1.84%
Volume:
Below average
Fixation:
Technicals, inflation & interest rates (growth concerns), geopolitical concerns, earnings.
Recap 2: Thursday, June 2, 2022
Market Comments:
The markets went higher after working-off the ST OB condition. Can it continue?
Technical indicators are improving.
VIX dropped below 25 for the first time in a month. Negative news largely ignored.
Microsoft lowered earnings guidance which shifted the markets negative before the Open but buyers entered anyway.
Oil up to almost $117.
Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) said a September pause in rate hikes not realistic.
Gas is still spiking higher.
Fear is high but not extreme.
S&P 500 is in correction territory.
Economic Reports:
Q1 Productivity was revised to -7.3% (expected -7.5%) from the preliminary reading of -7.5%. Unit labor costs were revised to +12.6% (expected +11.6%) from the preliminary reading of +11.6%.
Initial jobless claims decreased to 200,000 (expected 210,000).
Factory orders increased 0.3% m/m (expected +0.7%) following a previous increase of 1.8%.
ADP estimated that 128,000 jobs were added (expected 295,000).
Trend Condition:
Trend: Negative (weakening and crossing positive). Bias (Positive). Momentum (Mixed/Positive).
The Day’s Session
Sentiment
Inflation
SPX Sectors
Technical Alerts
Intraday
10-Minute Chart
Technical Overview
Friday, June 3, 2022 Positive
Market Positives
Energy
CRB
Gold
Interest rates
Staples.
Friday, June 3, 2022 Negative
Technical Overview: Market Negatives
Dow Jones Comp
World Indexes
Junk Bonds
FANG Index
Small Caps
Dow
Mid Caps
NASDAQ
NDX
NYSE Comp
All Stocks ETF
ARK Innovation ETF
Bitcoin Index
WLSH
Treasury and Corporate Bond Prices.
Trend Analysis
Breadth Analysis
Advance/Decline, NH/NL Studies
Short Term
Days to Weeks
Intermediate Term
Weeks to Months
Chart Variations
Trading Systems
Weeks to Months
Long Term
Months to Years
Broad Market
Stocks
Broad Market
Other Markets
Bonds
Possible Positive Scenarios
Friday, June 3, 2022 Outlook
Technicals: Turning positive and getting ST OB condition.
Sentiment remains negative.
Growth vs Value battle
Economic Reports:
Employment Situation
IHS Markit Services PMI – Final
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Geopolitical events:
Russia/Ukraine. China/Supply Chain. Inflation & Interest rates (growth concerns). Oil. Earnings. Fed Speak & Policy. Japan.
Friday, June 3, 2022 Scenarios
1. Down (Negative)
A. Rising interest rates, inflation fears, growth concerns, earnings, Fed Speak & policy, Fear. The recent trend of selling into strength.
B. Technicals are still negative but turning positive. Possibly ST OB.
2. Up (Positive)
A. The technicals are turning positive. Sentiment is negative.
B. Possible positive scenarios.
Coppock Curve and Pring Bottom Fisher have turned up. Staples spike is looking more viable. The Mass Index has triggered a signal. Have 2 Year Yields topped? Fed Pivot?
C. Technicals: Pivots, ST MAs, fib retracements, and previous levels may provide S/R.
3. Sideways: (Neutral)
ADX is above 20 and showing a negative trend.
Conclusion based on Thursday, June 2, 2022
Overview:
The SPX could be turning positive.
Short-Term:
Turning positive but possibly overbought.
Intermediate-Term:
Negative but turning positive.
Long-Term:
Negative: Below 200 SMA.
Thank You!
John Clay
The SPX Investing Program
[email protected]