Senate Toss-Up?

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-10-senate-seats-most-likely-to-flip-in-2022/ar-AAZoegu?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c57ad397e0314a9b8b724e13e2a1ea3b

With more than half of this year’s competitive Senate matchups set, the overall electoral environment remains consistent: President Joe Biden’s poor approval numbers, combined with a pervasive sense that the country is headed in the wrong direction, are weighing down Democrats looking to maintain control of Congress.

But bruising Republican primaries and the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade last month offer a few – albeit potentially ephemeral – glimmers of optimism for Democrats.

Any big Supreme Court-related development can raise the stakes of Senate races because of the chamber’s role in confirming future justices. But last month’s ruling that found there was no longer a federal constitutional right to an abortion could drive even more attention to the Senate since it’s Congress that would set any future nationwide abortion policies.

Pressed on how to respond to the ruling in an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash last month, Vice President Kamala Harris repeatedly said, “There’s an election happening.”

For Democrats or Democratic-leaning voters, especially those feeling uninspired by Biden’s first term so far, the ruling could motivate them to vote this fall. It remains to be seen, however, how much of that energy is sustainable and to what degree the ruling also persuades independents or moderate Republicans to vote Democratic. In the immediate term, the elimination of federal abortion rights has resulted in Democratic outside groups such as Planned Parenthood Votes and Women Vote!, the super PAC arm of EMILY’s List, going up on the air attacking Republicans.

Another bright spot for Democrats, underscored by the abortion issue, is that the Senate playing field includes states such as Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado that have recently voted blue. In fact, seven of the 10 races on this list of seats most likely to flip are in states Biden won in 2020.

The addition of Colorado at No. 10 on this latest ranking, however, speaks to the challenging national environment for Democrats. Economic issues – high inflation and gas prices this summer travel season – are still weighing on voters and are often cited as their most pressing concern. Republicans have also tried tapping into Americans’ post-pandemic anxieties about safety, with ads suggesting Democrats are soft on crime. Some Democratic candidates have worked to get ahead of those attacks early by featuring uniformed police in their own spots and directly refuting the idea of “defunding the police.”

Besides Colorado’s appearance on the list, the biggest change to this month’s ranking is Nevada and Georgia trading places. It may seem somewhat counterintuitive, especially in this era of hyper-nationalized elections and considering Nevada is a more Democratic state than Georgia. But the change was driven by the candidate matchups in the two states, as things stand now. The ranking is based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising and advertising data, and polling, as well as historical data about how states and candidates have performed.

Just a handful of important Senate primaries that will shape the November midterms remain. They key ones to watch in August and September: The Republican primaries in Arizona, Missouri and New Hampshire and the Democratic primary in Wisconsin.

1.    Pennsylvania Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)

2.    Nevada Incumbent: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto

3.    Georgia Incumbent: Democrat Raphael Warnock

4.    Arizona Incumbent: Democrat Mark Kelly

5.    Wisconsin Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson

6.    New Hampshire Incumbent: Democrat Maggie Hassan

7. North Carolina Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring)

8. Florida Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio

9. Ohio Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring)

10. Colorado Incumbent: Democrat Michael Bennet