Covid Statistical Illusions

Professor Norman Fenton runs me through a hypothetical example of statistical illusions.

Taking a false positive rate of <1% in C-19 tests, you would assume therefore that if you return a positive result, there is a 99% probability that you genuinely are infected.

Mathematically, statistically, and truthfully, this is incorrect. The Professor describes the common probabilistic fallacy known in legal circles as 'The Prosecutor's Fallacy'.

It turns out however that the example is not so hypothetical after all. A Cambridge University study on asymptomatic students, using confirmatory testing on the same sample, shows over 80% of those who first tested positive, were genuine false positives.

It points to 80-90% of positive test results being false positives, purely through mathematical and statistical reasoning with no other explanation or contributing factor required.

Watch the full interview at: https://discernable.io/professor-norman-fenton-lying-with-statistics-the-world-has-been-conned