Ukraine's "Counter Offensives" - Assessing Gains & Losses

Ukraine's Offensives Tactical Victories Can Contribute to Strategic Defeat

The New Atlas

Update for Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 12, 2022

- Ukraine has committed what is left of its best troops and equipment to multiple and expensive offensives - both around Kherson and in Kharkov, and rumors of offensives being prepared elsewhere;

- The Kherson offensive has failed, costing Ukraine multiple brigades’ worth of men and equipment with little territorial gain;

- The Kharkov offensive has cost Ukraine a large amount of men and equipment with significant territorial gains but failed to eliminate the Russian forces holding the region;

- Russia’s decision to withdraw from Kharkov conserves men and equipment for fighting later on and to be determined on Russian terms;

- There will be a significant strategic cost for Ukraine’s tactical gains - some of which are already being paid along the line of contact where Ukrainian lines have been weakened as Kiev cobbled together these offensive forces;

- There are significant parallels between this Ukrainian push and Germany’s Ardennes Offensive in 1944;

- Russia is targeting Ukrainian infrastructure including communication towers and power plants for the first time amid its military operations, signalling a possible escalation;

References:

Washington Post - Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
Atlantic Council - The Ukrainian military must reorganize to defeat Russia:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-ukrainian-military-must-reorganize-to-defeat-russia/
British Army Documentaries (YouTube) - The Ardennes Offensive Part 1 - A Calculated Risk:
https://youtu.be/ArtVmlqEeho
British Army Documentaries (YouTube) - The Ardennes Offensive Part 2 - Hold at All Cost:
https://youtu.be/QS-f8xLlH_o
British Army Documentaries (YouTube) - The Ardennes Offensive Part 3 - Forget Bastogne, head for the Meuse:
https://youtu.be/6bz3ZI2OA78
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