This May Be The Most Counterintuitive Probability Paradox I've Ever Seen | Can you spot the error?

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6 years ago
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WARNING: If you haven't see this paradox before (and probability isn't your thing), it may seem like math is broken here. I just want to say that it's not and it took me A LOT of thinking to finally see why. I encourage you to watch the video and see what conclusions you come to, but then check out the follow up video (https://youtu.be/ElB350w8iJo), or pinned comment, for more of an explanation about what's going on.

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What is the chance that a parent has two daughters, given the fact that they have two children, at least one of which is a girl named Julie?

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See pinned comment for additional information.

â–ºReferences (note, even some of the sources don't fully agree)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox
https://leightonvw.com/2017/03/03/the-puzzling-problem-of-a-girl-named-florida/
https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/2149812/the-two-daughter-problem
https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/4400/boy-born-on-a-tuesday-is-it-just-a-language-trick
https://science.slashdot.org/story/10/06/28/2221252/the-tuesday-birthday-problem
http://allendowney.blogspot.com/2011/11/girl-named-florida-solutions.html

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