The Bear Market Is Over

𝐆𝐄𝐓 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐂𝐎𝐈𝐍 𝐂𝐎𝐔𝐑𝐒𝐄➜➜➜
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In this video, I discuss yesterday's Fed meeting and press conference. I conclude that the Fed has finally pivoted, and that the bear market for risk assets is over.

If I am correct, the bottom is in for stocks and Bitcoin.

Non-farm payrolls and other economic indicators will weaken over the coming months, and even the CPI should moderate.

In the face of conclusive signs that the US economy is in recession, Powell will not have the guts to raise interest rates further after a 50 bps bump at the September meeting-- just two months before mid-term elections.

The bear market for stocks and Bitcoin is over.

Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.

Powell's press conference opening statement:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20220727.pdf

FOMC statement:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220727a.htm

Powell says US not in recession:
https://youtu.be/P-97NiA1sY8?t=4833

Unemployment rate is a lagging indicator:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/laggingindicator.asp

US GDP shrinks for 2 quarters:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-q2-gdp-growth-economy-11658981184?mod=hp_lead_pos2

Recessions and monthly changes in payroll:
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1552396151999135747/photo/1

Fed Funds probabilities:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

2-year Treasury Note yields:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

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#bitcoin
#fed
#bearmarket

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