US Headed For A Hard Landing?

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In this video, I discuss whether the US is headed towards a hard landing, where the Fed pushes the US economy into a recession and causes a bear market, in its efforts to bring inflation under control.

The real problem is that recessions always lead to higher budget deficits, and thus lead to higher debt/GDP levels, as debt increases and the economy shrinks.

A hawkish stance cannot be held for very long in the face of a deflationary debt spiral like this. I expect something big to break this summer, and for the Fed to be forced to reverse course and turn the money printers back on before the end of September 2022.

A Powell pivot would lead to a very large stock market rally and Bitcoin rally.

Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.

US debt clock:
https://www.usdebtclock.org/

US budget deficits by year:
https://datalab.usaspending.gov/americas-finance-guide/deficit/trends/

Federal budget deficits as percentage of GDP:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S#bitcoin

US GDP:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

Fed stops buying Treasuries:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-06/fed-lays-out-plan-to-prune-balance-sheet-by-1-1-trillion-a-year

Russia won't be buying Treasuries:
https://www.ft.com/content/055231b1-e3bc-44fe-a7fb-6eaaa0933f72

Japan and China shrinking their Treasury holdings:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/chinas-holdings-us-treasuries-skid-12-year-low-japan-also-cuts-holdings-2022-06-15/
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

US Treasury market liquidity problems:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-16/fed-s-williams-says-higher-rates-driving-volatility-liquidity

Fed's Mester getting more hawkish:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/fed-is-just-at-the-beginning-of-raising-us-rates-mester-says

S&P 500 annual returns by year:
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1538159906108411904/photo/1

Powell says he's not trying to induce a recession:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/22/business/economy-news-inflation-stocks

Federal tax receipts:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MTSR133FMS#001

Debt/GDP chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

I am not being paid or otherwise compensated by any company or cryptocurrency project that I mention in my videos.

My opinion is not for sale. Please do not contact me with any affiliate or advertising deals.

#recession
#fed
#stocks

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