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How FTX exposed the whole crypto market!!! Be prepared for next Economy Collapse 20232. Another argument for a shorter time lag comes from the global economy, in which most countries are tightening simultaneously. One indicator that covers 54 countries shows that almost all are tightening monetary policy. As the world has become more interconnected, simultaneous changes in policy have greater and quicker impacts.

On the other side of possibilities, the greatest argument for a slower response of the economy to monetary tightening is consumers’ high bank balances. In the pandemic, spending fell due to lockdowns, but incomes rose. Stimulus checks went to most families, working people got pay raises, and those laid off received extra unemployment insurance that, in many cases, more than compensated for lost wages. Savings in excess of the normal trend zoomed for a year, then started declining as people slowly spent more money relative to their earnings. By my estimate, the accumulated excess savings now totals $1.5 trillion, an amount that is declining by about $90 billion per month. At that rate, consumers’ bank balances will return to normal in 16 months.

Another good reason to expect a long time lag before monetary policy triggers a recession is the excess demand for labor relative to the number of unemployed people. As companies re-think their hiring plans, their first step will be to cut open positions, not lay off working people. The response will vary by company and industry, of course