Fed Blowing Up The Markets

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In this video, I discuss the recent Fed minutes, and what it means for the Fed shrinking its balance sheet (quantitative tightening=QT).

The Fed wants to shrink its balance sheet by over $1 trillion per year, but it is highly unlikely that it will be able to do so, unless it finds new buyers for approximately $3 trillion worth of US Treasuries.

The Fed will continue tightening until something breaks. That may be a recession, stock market crash, or large problems with the US financial plumbing. Until then, expect lots of volatility and sharply lower asset prices.

Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.

Brainard says Fed will shrink balance sheet soon:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-05/brainard-says-fed-to-shrink-balance-sheet-rapidly-as-soon-as-may

Fed decides to shrink balance sheet:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-06/fed-lays-out-plan-to-prune-balance-sheet-by-1-1-trillion-a-year

Fed meeting minutes:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20220316.htm

Watch the Fed's balance sheet here:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

Chart of Fed Funds effective rate:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

Fed fund probabilities:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

US debt clock:
https://www.usdebtclock.org/

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#StockMarketCrash
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