Excess deaths, countries and ages groups

Excess deaths, different countries and different age groups

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release

In 2022

144,650 deaths that occurred by 30 September

(and were registered by 30 November),

which is 19,986 (16.0%) more than the historical average

(compared to 2015-2019)

Same period

8,160 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor

Non covid excess deaths
= 11,826

Week ending 30 December 2022 (Week 52)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest

9,517 deaths were registered in England and Wales

(393 mentioned "novel coronavirus, COVID-19)

The number of deaths was above the five-year average

Private homes, 36.9% above, (684 excess deaths)

Hospitals, 14.8% above, (537 excess deaths)

Care homes 20.4% above, (371 excess deaths)

Other settings 0.2% above, (1 excess death)

Total excess deaths, week 52 = 1,593

Percentage change compared to 5-year average (2016 to 2019 and 2021) for week 52

20.1%

Week ending 23rd December England and Wales, (week 51)

All-cause deaths registered 14,530

(COVID-19 accounted for 429, 3.0%)

Number of deaths was above the five-year average

Private homes (37.5% above, 1,120 excess deaths)

Hospitals (18.8% above, 1,031 excess deaths)

Care homes (10.5% above; 282 excess deaths)

Other settings (7.0% above, 61 excess deaths) in Week 51 in England and Wales.

Total excess deaths, week 51 = 2,492

Excess deaths in all UK age groups

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

Data goes up to 18th November 2022

Investigating cause of excess deaths

In 1965, English statistician Sir Austin Bradford Hill

Causal relationships

Strength

The larger the association, the more likely that it is causal

Consistency, (reproducibility)

Consistent findings, different persons in different places

Specificity

No other likely explanation

Temporality

The effect has to occur after the cause (often with a delay)

Biological gradient, (dose response relationship)

Greater exposure should lead to greater incidence of the effect

(or indeed lower incident of effect)

Plausibility

A plausible mechanism between cause and effect

Coherence

Between epidemiological and laboratory findings

Experiment

Occasionally it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence

Analogy

Analogies or similarities between the observed association and any other associations

Reversibility

May work if there is no permanent damage