Is Society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modelling Societal Demise and its Reversal

Individuals, groups and even whole societies sometimes enter a death spiral. A vicious cycle of self-reinforcing dysfunctional behavior that can even lead to societal collapse if the course of suboptimal action and decision making is not corrected.

In this conversation recorded earlier, Michaéla Schippers and Rico Brouwer discuss the new academic paper "Is Society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modelling Societal Demise and its Reversal" (Michaéla Schippers,, John P. A. Ioannidis, Matthias Luijks), that is currently under review and available as preprint at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4352765

Schippers: "While the period before the Covid-19 crisis seems to be characterized by policy underreaction to complex social problems, the current times seem to be characterized by overreaction to a small set of problems. In this theory-building review we coin the term Death Spiral Effect to describe this type of overreaction and the resulting cascading effects in (health) policies. Our review, synthesizing research from multiple fields indicates several evidence-based solutions to reverse the decline, such as turn-around leadership and the strengthening of democracy. Ideally, public health agencies, governments, companies, all relevant stakeholders as well as individuals should collaborate toward the goals of a healthier and happier future for all.

referenced letters to the future: https://www.greatcitizensmovement.org/signing-the-declaration/

on follow the science: http://followthescience.nl/interviews/is-society-caught-up-in-a-death-spiral-modelling-societal-demise-and-its-reversal