California Faces an Impending Flood Catastrophe of $1 Trillion in the Next 40 Years #usnews

California Faces an Impending Flood Catastrophe of $1 Trillion in the Next 40 Years

California is at risk of a 1-in-200-year flood catastrophe, and it could cost the state nearly $1 trillion, or 4% of U.S. GDP. Climate change is contributing to the increasing likelihood of such a disaster, with a greater than 50% chance of it happening within the next 40 years. The recent Fourth National Climate Assessment confirms that the frequency and severity of landfalling atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast will increase due to rising evaporation and atmospheric water vapor from global warming. The state's major urban centers, including San Francisco and Los Angeles, are more likely to experience severe storm sequences unless significant upgrades are made to California's flood-control infrastructure.

The potential failure of the Whittier Narrows Dam on the San Gabriel River in the Los Angeles metro area is just one example of the vulnerability of California's infrastructure to an atmospheric river storm. Should the dam fail, up to one million people in metropolitan Los Angeles could be flooded, with the highest water levels of 20 feet affecting Pico Rivera, a city of 63,000 lying just downstream.

The risk of such catastrophic flooding is not new to California. Historical evidence shows that six storms more severe than the 1861-1862 storm have hit California since 212 AD, with one lasting for 45 days, causing devastating flooding and turning California's Central Valley into a lake 300 miles long and over 20 miles wide. The resulting floods put downtown Sacramento under 10+ feet of water, forcing the movement of the state capital to San Francisco.

The USGS ArkStorm scenario modeled a hybrid storm based on two actual storms that hit California, with additional tweaks to produce sufficient precipitation to approximately match the limited observations of the 1861-1862 storm. The storm could flood up to 25% of all buildings in the state, breach approximately 50 levees, and force the evacuation of 1.5 million people. The damage caused by the modeled storm was $725 billion in 2007 dollars, which is equivalent to $900 billion in 2019 dollars, or 4% of U.S. GDP.

Climate models predict that the odds of such catastrophic events will increase with global warming. A warmer climate will lead to stronger atmospheric rivers hitting California, which will cause severe flooding, destruction, and death. The state's flood-control infrastructure must be updated to accommodate these storms.

In conclusion, California faces an impending flood catastrophe that could cost the state nearly $1 trillion within the next 40 years. Historical evidence shows that such severe storms have hit the state before, and climate models predict that they will become more frequent and severe with global warming. The state's flood-control infrastructure must be upgraded to avoid devastating consequences. If not, California will continue to be at risk of catastrophic flooding, putting millions of people's lives, homes, and businesses in danger.

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