Demilitarisation Update 13 May 2023

Ukraine Receiving Storm Shadow Cruise Missiles + the Propaganda Storm around Bakhmut

The New Atlas

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for May 13, 2023:

Russian media space panics over false claims of Ukraine’s offensive beginning;
The trading of territory in Bakhmut is typical of urban combat operations and does not indicate a “momentum shift” until the vector sum of the fighting begins favoring Ukraine rather than Russian forces;
Additional evidence has surfaced that Ukraine is using some of its best military hardware in and around Bakhmut including German-made self-propelled howitzers, indicating that Russian plans to draw in and destroy Ukraine’s best troops and equipment is working;
Ahead of Ukraine’s offensive, both sides are conducting long-range strikes. For Russia it is about disrupting Ukraine’s offensive potential. For Ukraine it is about shaping the psychological and media landscape of the conflict;
The Storm Shadow cruise missile is air-launched and for targets deep inside Russian territory to be under threat, Ukrainian warplanes must travel dangerously close ot the line of contact and expose themselves to Russian air defenses. The missiles themselves must circumvent Russian air defense systems and electronic warfare measures;
The terrain mapping feature most likely will require intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the US-UK in order to make the missile’s use most effective;
While Storm Shadow missiles and other long-range weapons Ukraine may have will inevitably make it through to their targets these are not capabilities Russia doesn’t already have and in greater abundance. If these are war-winning capabilities, Russia is going to win the war first;
References:

Andrei Martyanov’s YouTube Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/@smoothieX12

Scripps News - Inside Ukraine: The most powerful artillery gun in the world (May 3, 2023):
https://youtu.be/OthKo3wl6Ss

BBC - Ukraine claims gains in Bakhmut after Russia denials (May 13, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65567143

TASS - Fragments of American decoy missile ADM-160 found in central Lugansk – agency (May 13, 2023):
https://tass.com/emergencies/1616871

TASS - Ukraine struck polymer manufacturing plant in Lugansk — former LPR envoy (May 13, 2023):
https://tass.com/politics/1616861

TASS - Strike on Lugansk delivered from Olkha multiple missile launchers (May 13, 2023):
https://tass.com/politics/1616853

The Drive - Ukraine Is Using Guided Rockets With More Range Than HIMARS-Launched Ones (March 1, 2023):
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-is-using-guided-rockets-with-more-range-than-himars-launched-ones

CNN - Britain has delivered long-range ‘Storm Shadow’ cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive, sources say (May 12, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/uk-storm-shadow-cruise-missiles-ukraine/index.html

US Department of Defense - Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine May 9, 2023:
https://media.defense.gov/2023/May/09/2003218471/-1/-1/0/UKRAINE-FACT-SHEET-RUE.PDF

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