Track your KPIs but beware numeracy bias

Measurement is often a prerequisite to growth, but it can also lead you astray.

"What gets measured gets done” is a useful saying, in many ways.

* Measuring something requires attention.
* Measuring allows you to track improvement.
* An impending measurement motivates action.

However, a bias towards measurable things might lead us to abandon worthwhile things we can’t measure.

Consider advertising. Did advertising money shift to online ads because they are more effective, or because they are more measurable? (Also ask yourself how you would know.)

Measurement can cause us to emphasize the quantitative over the qualitative, which isn’t always a good idea. A manager who is very effective at building teams might have poor numbers in more measurable skills.

Putting a number to something can make it seem more reliable than it is. This is called “numeracy bias,” and it’s widespread. It’s why adding a number to a subject line can make it more effective.

“83% of engineers surveyed” sounds compelling, but what if there were only six engineers?

Numeracy bias can prevent us from seeing faulty assumptions, erroneous definitions, and bad data.

Don’t let a number or a graph deceive you. Remember that you have a cognitive bias that leads you to trust numbers. Counter it with a healthy dose of skepticism.

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