Predicting Canada's Population in 2050

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In this video I discuss the art and science of using data to predict the future. We can analyze historic data to identify trends (that is the science part) but we never know how long those trends will endure before something causes them to stop or possibly even reverse (that is the dark art part). I use the example of predicting Canada's population in 2050 in this video which seems simple enough - take the current population + births + immigration - deaths - emigration.

However, in 2019 the United Nations predicted the Canadian death rate through 2100. Within just 3 years (2022) their prediction was off by 20.1% as Canada (like much of the world) has been experiencing double digit "excess deaths" since 2020. The bottom line is, in the words of the late British statistician George Box, "All models are wrong, but some are useful." We have to be careful about putting too much faith in models, because the only thing we know for certain is "all models are wrong" even though "some are useful."

#maids #medicalassistanceindying #canada #dataanalytics #unitednations #birthrate #deathrate

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12166823/Canada-track-record-busting-year-euthanasia-deaths-35-jump-13-500-cases.html

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CAN/canada/death-rate

https://phys.org/news/2023-07-expert-insight-canada-historic-immigrants.html

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/excess-deaths-mortality-coronavirus-covid-19/

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021028-eng.htm

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-prepares-expand-assisted-death-amid-debate-2022-12-11/