July 10th, 2003:

In the unlikely event that the 3 Gorges Dam were to suffer a catastrophic failure or otherwise be destroyed, projections suggest a 6 to 10 meter wall of water would surge down the length of the Yangtze river and reach Nanjing, roughly 1500 km away, in 24 hours. Evacuation would be possible for those further down stream but it is likely that millions would die, as many as 400 million people would be displaced, a large chunk of China’s industrial capacity would be destroyed or shut down and even larger part of it’s agricultural land would be destroyed bringing about a near immediate famine.

Though I absolutely love the idea of this kind of world shaping mega project and China undoubtedly benefits greatly from the dam with its abundant, carbon neutral energy, control of the flooding of the river, increasing traffic and commerce along the whole river length it still has the potential to tear out the heart of the world’s industrial center and end China’s ascent to global dominance in a day.

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