Ukraine War, Jenin, France escalation.

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404
#ukrainewar

4th July
Military Summary Channel
https://www.youtube.com/@UCUnc496-PPmFZVKlYxUnToA
Alexander Mercouris @AlexMercouris
WAGNER Sumy - Chernigov
Sumy - north west of Kharkiv - right on the border - Ukrainian defenses appear lighter here and Russian activity picking up in this area to soften the area - videos showing a lack of Air Defence in Sumy

Military Summary Channel - Kyupiansk - too heavily entrenched - Sumy seems an easier target - and recall

Chernigov - similar situation - Wagner are just north -
I mentioned a few days ago - Wagner are planning to be involved in the Ukraine Chernigov region - this is just north of Kyiv/south of Belarussian border. Earlier in May there were a series of seemingly unexplained nightly glide bomb strikes in this area.

Remember that Sumy and Chernigov are very close to Kyiv… 100kms to Chernigov, 200 to Sumy and lower levels of defenses

Ukraine - Storm Shadow
Also talk that Ukraine has detected Russian supply locations and are preparing a HIMARS and Storm Shadow attack as the prelude then a much bigger offensive started…

Expect to see action as of day after tomorrow (southern hemisphere today in the pacific is 4th 2mro in Europe - day after expect a major push from Ukraine.
don’t want footage of busted western equipment on show on Independence Day -

Still seeing reports about Zaporozhye as a possible target of some US or Ukraine attack, however neither side really gains from this, and more likely on this i tend to agree with ALexander Mercouris that Ukraine may be hinting at this so as to gain leverage over The West - effectively saying “continue sending us money and weapons or we will do something disastrous to the Zap Power Plant”

Ground controlled
16 830 first month May 2022
114,388 - declined sep oct nov to 96000
Since then varied about 100sqm per month still at approx 96000

UKRAINE SURVEY kiev international institute of Sociology Alexander Mercouris
78% know someone killed or injured avg 7 64% close/wounded avg 5 63% close/killed avg 3 - grown from 9% Until June 5th - so this excludes the casualties estimated by Russian MOD and other non-russian analysts such as Mikael Valtersson at upwards of 15K since the early june offensive began.

Moving to more global matters for a while

France Marie Le Penn - her star appears to be rising - - her policies seem to be resonating with a French public rocked by civil unrest. She certainly offers a new option in Europe - her position on Crimea is that the territory is Russian and France’s involvement in the Ukraine war is misguided.

In Germany the AfD - reaches highest polling at 21% and only 4.5% from becoming the biggest party in Germany.

China restricts rare earth metals
The Hill reports
China announces restrictions on export of Chipmaking metals - these are critical in thermoelectrics and military milspec electronics

These are rare 650 tonnes approx annual global production for Gallium

This is an important move by China as it puts the US at a disadvantage as China produces almost all 94% in 2022 of the worlds Gallium, production of Germainium is similar with China producing nearly 2/3rds of global output.
Exporters will need to apply for licenses and provide details of all customers for approval

Swedish flag burned outside Swedish embassy in London - retaliation for the burning of the Holy Quran in Sweden.

Stoltenberg likely to remain as NATO Secretary General for another year. No change in direction from NATO in terms of the Ukraine conflict.

India starts paying for Russian oil in Yuan. This is after last week Argentina made a loan repayment to the INt Monetary Fund without using dollars, instead using Yuan. Dedollarisation and BRICS

Hungry (NATO ) refusing to give more money to Ukraine until Ukraine explains where the 70 billion euros have gone - also against the European Commission's plans to provide $50B over the next 4 years.

Jenin ongoing conflict north of the west bank - 20 miles south of Nazareth - refugee camp endured two nights of Israeli Defence Force (IDF) operations.

THe Times of Israel quoted
Chief of the IDF Central Command Maj. Gen. Yehuda Fox - claims that the operations will continue and did not indicate if the planned goal of the operation to detect alleged terrorists had been achieved. 1000 IDF forces were involved , Bulldozers destroyed streets and the water and electrical supply in some areas.

Israel is ranked 18th out of 145 in the GLobal Annual Firepower review… Palestine does not rate.
This is demonstrated in the statistics for 2023

Since the start of 2023, Israeli forces have killed at least 156 Palestinians, including 26 children. The death toll includes 36 Palestinians killed by the Israeli army during a four-day assault on the besieged Gaza Strip between May 9 and 13.

As well, 19 Israelis have already been killed in terrorist attacks in 2023,