NATO Summit Day 1 - no joy for Ukraine

NATO 12th July 2023

#nato #nafo ##UkraineWar #russia

NATO
Jens Stoltenberg - unhappy that China refuses to condemn Russia's war with Ukraine - stating “the country is undermining the foundations of the rules-based world order, so allies will work together against such behaviour by China”

Jens also commented “ approved a force of 300,000 soldiers on standby including ari and sea capabilities”

Cracks starting to emerge after summit - UKR newspaper reports “THe west is responsible for the failure of the offensive” - did not provide enough aide.

Viktor Orban - Prime Minister of Hungary - “Peace should be delivered to Ukraine..not weapons! He called for ceasefire and immediate peace negotiations” - stated that 10s of thousands of hungarians are in immediate danger - ? Transcarpathia ceded to Ukraine in 1945, with many ethnic Hungarians - Transcarpathia is an oblast on the far west of Ukraine. Zakarpattia Oblast

As expected “ Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto ” confirmed that Hungary support Sweden joining NATO

Over all the summit Not good for Ukraine - kept in the tumbledryer - military support but no direct NATO boots on the ground - lead to more UKR deaths

Images of Zelensky - looking dejected, isolated - perhaps realising that Ukraine are a pawn in a larger US Russia conflict “tweeted the decison of nato members to not confirm timeframe of Ukraine entry was “unprecendented and absurd”

Germany out of shells?
Reuter report from June 19th indicated Germany had only 20,000 HE shells remaining, howe er German Chancellor Scholtz has announced an aid package of $&00m euros that will provide 20,000 HE shells.
Now Reuters may be wrong - Germany may have produced more in the last month, but the numbers do not appear to be orders of magnitude apart - indicating that the West's shell shortage is wide spread.

Medvedev comments on cluster munitions
Commented on NATO - outcomes as expected and that Tokmak (Zap region) was shelled with cluster munitions - he then stated “This means it's time to unleash our arsenals of this human weapon”

Russian production
ROstech’s Deputy Genral Director - Vladimir Artyakov - Russia has doubled production of Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35 fighter jets.

Uralgavonzavod - a russian heavy machine building company announced it has increased the supply and overhaul of
T-72 and T-90 tanks by 3.6 times….
BMP3 (IFV 100mm cannon) up by 2.1,
BTR-82A (8wheel APC) up by 4.0,
Tigr-M (4x4 Humvee equivalent) up by 2.0

Delvieries of Ka-52 Alligator - up by 2.0
And Mi-28 up by 3.0
And Orlan UAV drones - up by 53 times

Drones are the game changer.

The story that will not die
Video emerged of Prigozhin - reiterating his statement from a few months ago that Wagner will become operational on the 5th August.

Russian Advances

Karmazynivka - North of Lyman heading towards Kup’yans’k

Kreminna to the east of Lyman

Advances in kilometers 3.5km - extending a front from kreminna forest to north og Karmazynivka - 65kilometer long.

Avdeevka
Russians establishing fire control over the roads and beginning to form what might be a pair of pincers. Very heavy fighting.

Vremeevka Ledge
Video of a Ukraine column advancing, taking very heavy artillery from Russia - however Ukrainins reporting that they were successful in capturing some territory and force russians to step back slightly

Odessa
Attacks on the ports - Ammunition dumps - first attacks since the grain deal was agreed last year - a sign that the grain deal will end on the 17th July

Kherson - Islands - Dneiper river
One area of success for Ukraine today - Russians pushed out of the islands near the Antanovsky bridge - however reported UKR losses are heavy - so gaining ground, but this seems to be because Russia are ok to relinquish territory and preserve their troops.

Also some clever tactics - video of small drone dropping grenade on a cluster of anti-tank mines laid across a road.

5.9 million - internal displaced
7.9 million - external refugees
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