When does the Nvidia bubble burst?

When does the Nvidia bubble burst?
Nvidia’s fundamentals do not supports its current price. It can be argued that the projected revenue growth and future demand are fundamentals, and these justify its stock price. I reject that expectations have enough evidence and are grounded in reality when all things are considered.
I have seen math that shows a 27% CAGR for the next decade is priced into the stock. Nvidia would need to multiply its sales by 11 times over the next decade to justify the current stock price. This would require TSMC to increase its physical production 10 fold to meet the Nvidia demand. Nvidia will contract with TSMC to produce its next generation chips. Regardless of who manufactures the chips, whether TSMC does the vast majority of the work, or other fabs, Intel most likely, do the manufacturing, there just are not the factories present for 10 or 11 times the current Nvidia production. It takes years to bring fabs online as they are complex and heavily capital intense projects. You could refute this argument by stating the chip prices will increase because of a lack of supply, however, I would argue the price can not increase without limit. I do not see how price increases could justify an 11 times sales increase.
Let’s consider just how many data centers would have to be built to keep up with those Nvidia sales. We are talking about an insane amount of power usage to operate those data centers. You cannot deploy tens of thousands of Nvidia GPUs without spending billions of dollars on infrastructure which alone would take years to build.
If Nvidia were to miss earnings, there is a real risk the stock could fall significantly.
There is an argument that Nvidia is unstoppable at this point and the only thing that could derail the company is an anti-trust lawsuit brought by the government. However, Intel has recently entered the market, which may suggest an anti-trust lawsuit may not happen for some time. Also, congress seems unwilling to get involved with corporate consolidation in general. Intel has had issues in the past with graphics cards, and AMD seems content with taking a back seat to Nvidia, therefore making Nvidia the king of graphics cards. The mere presence of Intel and AMD may constitute genuine competition for Nvidia, or at least the perception of it that regulators and the government can cite as reasons not to go after Nvidia.
I have not been the first person to making these arguments, or reach these conclusions. Nonetheless, I can see the stock continuing to rise above $500, above $550, maybe above $600. I will continue to make these arguments, as will others. I do not see anything stopping the Nvidia stock price rising until there are issues with sales that start appearing which will trigger short selling and start pulling the stock back down to earth and reality. The market is in a state of euphoria and ecstasy when it comes to artificial intelligence and Nvidia.
Works Cited:
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