Three Times a Charm for Aurora: Solar Storm Forecast 10-31-2019

This Solar Storm Forecast is sponsored in part by 3ric Johanson: http://instagram.com/scubist

We've just barely had a chance to calm down from a G2-level solar storm due to some fast solar wind that hit a few days ago and we are already being hit by a stealthy solar storm the Sun launched back on October 25th! This stealthy storm has bumped us back to active conditions for a short while, but it should bring aurora only to high latitudes because it is magnetically oriented the wrong way to really have a significant impact Earth's magnetic shield. Nonetheless, it is helping to precondition Earth's shield and make it more sensitive to the next solar storm that is expected to hit over the next few days. This third storm will be from some fast solar wind from a southern hemisphere coronal hole and it could return us to active conditions starting around early next week. In addition to these solar storms, several bright regions are rotating into Earth view, and they are are boosting the solar flux up to marginal conditions for radio propagation (just barely). This is good news for amateur radio and emergency responders as these conditions should last over the next few days and possibly into next week as well. The only group really suffering are GPS users, as GPS reception likely isn't so great right now, especially near aurora and on Earth's night side. However, reception should slowly get better as we move through mid-next week. Learn the details of these three solar storms, how they are affecting the satellites above us, when and where to see aurora, and what to expect in radio propagation and GPS reception this week as well as what else our Sun has in store!

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For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.

Solar Imaging and Analysis:
SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/
Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html
GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html
SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/
Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html
GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/
LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch

Solar Wind:
DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261
NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere:
GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer
Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/
Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast
Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp
USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/
USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/
NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html

Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites:
NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov
SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm
Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com
iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html

Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use.

Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.