Ukraine's Third Counter-offensive Strategy

Ukraine's third counter-offensive strategy is different than the first two. These three counter-offensive strategies should be though of as layers rather than independent strategies, but it is clear that the counter-offensive strategy has shifted radically since early June.

3rd Counter-Offensive strategy

Russia and Ukraine aren’t playing the same game
Not chess and checkers

Background
Russia holds ground
Defensive positions
Content to wait
Prefers long engagement
Gets political wins by blowing up power stations, residential buildings
And other visible objects.

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Ukraine needs a win
Powered by partners who need to see victory
Public corporation stock holders want to see a return
In US, Elections in November 2024
Support goes up with a victory and down as it seems to stall (Wagner was a huge boost)
The counteroffensive played on Russia’s terms did not go well
6 months to dig in; 6 months to get weapons

Ukraine’s first strategy: head on assault
Significant losses
Second strategy: back off and target logistics, supply hubs to degrade enemy
Better effect; not much tangible to show for it in km.
Third strategy most effective—harassment in various places
Visible and creates dilemmas for the Russians
-Incursions into Russia (Belgorod)
-Drone strike in Moscow
-Kerch bridge on fire
-Another drone strike on Moscow
-Seaborne drone attack on Russian ships
-Crossing the Dnipro River with small special forces
These strategies are layered.
This is the new counter-offensive strategy moving forward

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