non computable probability crypto Black swan prediction myth false guru self parody rant

a 2001 Nassim Nicholas Taleb Black swan event has 3 attributes; rarity, extreme 'impact', retrospective predictability such that an event carries an extreme 'impact' BUT nothing in the past can point to the events possibility as it lies outside the realm of expectation or prediction BUT some after the fact concoct explanations as if it could have been expected due to the need to make any significant event explainable, predictable & preventable

high-profile, hard-to-predict, & rare events beyond the realm of expectations
often have a VERY disproportionate role in history, science, finance, & tech

the dominant role in history of rare unexpected events of large consequence
breeds the same psychological bias that blind us to their incomputable probability

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

= most citations archived due to youtube link bot & censor flag threats

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