Food Prices Going Down – WHAT?!

Historically in Australia, it’s normal to see food prices rise by a little bit every year, but it’s usually just a once-a-year sort of thing, with prices increasing only by 5 or 10 cents depending on the item. It’s noticeable, but not dramatic, and certainly your wage typically increases as well, so it’s not such a big deal. But, over the last 12 or 18 months, it’s been almost depressing going to the supermarket. Every couple of weeks, I’d see the prices of my favourite grocery items rising, often by a lot. I was honestly getting angry going shopping. It became a real visceral experience. I know it sounds stupid, but for me, sudden grocery price rises really affected me, and I presume many other people as well. My salary wasn’t going up (and still hasn’t, by the way), but all the grocery prices were.

The news reports state, “Food prices have risen 7.5 per cent in the last year”, but I don’t know, I think for some things, it’s a lot more that. If you look at the latest Consumer Price Index report on the ABS’ website, June Quarter 2023, you can see that although food prices generally have gone up 7.5%, bread and cereals have gone up 11.6%, and dairy products have gone up 15.2%! But I don’t think this entirely captures the actual price rises in some supermarkets. I’m sure some things have gone up even more than what’s shown on this chart. And I’m not imagining it. For example, non-alcoholic beverages are said to have risen 8.6% according to the ABS, but according to the ABC article who compared actual archival catalogues with the supermarkets’ current pricing, in one unnamed supermarket, non-alcoholic beverages went up by 46%, so of course, there are limitations to the ABS’ consumer price index calculations, and they don’t necessary reflect reality in all markets and product combinations.

The article also asked, “Are food prices going to come down? If you're hoping for a radical price drop on your groceries in 2024, you might not want to hold your breath. Despite inflation lessening on food overall, this doesn't necessarily mean that food is getting cheaper — it's just getting more expensive slower.” Which mathematically and logically makes sense, but I still found it depressing, because my salary has stagnated.

But then the other day I walked into Aldi, depressed as normal, expecting prices to be high or higher, but I couldn’t believe it, a kilogram block of Tasty Cheese had a new low price! $9.99 reduced from $10.79. That’s like a 7.5% decrease! I don’t eat cheese, but my children do. I was absolutely elated! I couldn’t control my emotions. I was smiling from ear to ear! And then I walked around the corner and found that the chocolate milk poppers had been reduced from $4.29 down to $3.49, an 18.5% decrease! Yes! Again, I couldn’t contain my elation. I don’t know if dairy prices have gone done generally. I don’t know if Aldi found a new cheap supplier. I don’t know, and I don’t really care. But for once, for the first time in a few years, something good has happened to me at the supermarket.

Yeah okay, it’s only small. You might think I’m insane. But I haven’t had much good happening in my life recently, so I have to celebrate these wins, no matter how small.

FOOD PRICES HAVE RISEN 7.5 PER CENT IN THE LAST YEAR
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-14/food-inflation-are-food-prices-going-to-go-down/102669270

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, AUSTRALIA, JUNE QUARTER 2023
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/jun-quarter-2023

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