What happens next in the Israel-Hamas war?

"The first thing smart militants do is recognize that civilian attacks are a recipe for political failure," writes Max Abrahms, a political science professor at Northeastern University and author of Rules for Rebels: The Science of Victory in Militant History, a lengthy study of terrorism and insurgency. "You might say that the first rule for rebels is to not use terrorism at all."

It's for this reason that Abrahms believes that Hamas' brutal attack on Israeli civilians is not only immoral but "a major strategic mistake" for the Palestinian cause. Abrahms traveled to the West Bank shortly after the September 11, 2001 attacks amid a wave of Palestinian terrorism known as the "Second Intifada." What he found became the subject of his dissertation. While a previous influential study had concluded that Palestinian terrorism often resulted in "success" in achieving "significant territorial concessions," what Abrahms discovered by talking with Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank is that the terrorism "eroded support for territorial concessions while creating support for a fence" and likely blocked the possibility of independent statehood.

Join Reason's Zach Weissmueller and Liz Wolfe this Thursday at 1 p.m. Eastern on Reason's YouTube channel or Facebook page for a live discussion with Abrahms about how the lessons of his work apply to the current Israel-Hamas war, what is likely to happen to Gaza in the short- and long-term, and what the role of the U.S. should and shouldn't be in the conflict.

Source material for this discussion:

Times of Israel: “Egypt intelligence official says Israel ignored repeated warnings of ‘something big’” https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-intelligence-official-says-israel-ignored-repeated-warnings-of-something-big/

WSJ: Iran helped Hamas plot attack over several weeks - https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25

Congressional Research Service Report, 2021: Total US aid to Israel - https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33222/44

Congressional Research Service Report, Total US aid to Palestine (over $6.3 billion since 1950): https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46344/3

Biden provides half a billion in aid to Palestine: https://www.state.gov/u-s-support-for-the-palestinian-people/

“UNICEF estimates that there are roughly 1 million children living in the Gaza Strip, meaning that a little under half of all 2.1 million people in Gaza are children.”

“But the blockade also tightly limits Palestinians’ access to basic supplies and food staples, and the U.N. estimates that it has cost the territory’s economy as much as $16.7 billion over 11 years.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/14/gaza-strip-history-geography/

Newsweek: Iran admits to providing Hamas with ‘skills’ to carry out attacks https://www.newsweek.com/iran-admits-providing-palestinian-fighters-skills-israel-attacks-hamas-gaza-1833795

Thomas Chatterton Williams tweet: https://x.com/thomaschattwill/status/1712147866427248784?s=20

The total blockade of Gaza announced by the Defence Minister of Israel, Yoav Gallant, October 9, 2023 https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstories/no-electricity-no-food-no-fuel-israels-defense-minister-orders-total-blockade-on-gaza/ar-AA1hUWWZ

CNN: Mustafa Barghouti, Leader of Palestinian National Initiative on Israel in Gaza, Oct. 8, 2023 https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/mustafa-barghouti-palestinian-national-initiative-hamas-attack-israel.cnn

Ron Paul speaks to House of Representatives in opposition to a bill condemning bombings of Israel, Dec. 5, 2001 - https://www.c-span.org/video/?167636-1/house-session