Soft, Hard, or No Landing? | David Woo

The US stock market rally following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has been driven by growing expectations of a soft landing for the US economy -- credit tightening and tighter financial conditions will slow the economy enough to force the Fed to stop hiking interest rates but not enough to bring on a recession. With the relationship between bond yield and stock market reaching extreme levels, what could go wrong with the soft landing scenario? What about the fact that both the US labor market and core services inflation ex housing have remained strong? What about the fact that Jerome Powell seems less concerned about the banking crisis than the market? What will we learn from First Republic Bank next week when it releases its Q1 results? If a no landing scenario is more likely than a soft landing scenario, what about the probability of a hard landing scenario? Did you know that the Trump indictment might increase the risk of a debt ceiling crisis? Did you know that the Ukraine war is set to escalate as we head into the spring and could lead to a potential direct confrontation between Putin and Nato? Did you know that a potential military conflict between Israel and Iran will likely send oil price sharply higher? Why do so many professional investors consider the stock market overpriced? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.

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