Harmful Predictions by the Bureau of Meteorology

If you live in Australia, you may have noticed a lot of rain of late. But this wasn’t exactly predicted. Quite the opposite. Our esteemed Bureau of Meteorology, BOM. You’re not allowed to call them BOM anymore. Australians might get confused and think they’re an actual bomb, so you have to call them The Bureau. But, the rebranding was set to cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, and there was quite a big backlash, so the Bureau now says people can refer to the body “in any way they wish”. That’s good, because I’m planning to call them The Bureau of Mythology and Unicorns.

In March this year, the ABC announced that “An 'El Niño Watch' has been declared — here’s what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2023”, with a picture of a dead fish on a dry lake bed. Later in June, they proudly announced, “BoM declares El Niño alert, signalling higher chance of warm, dry winter conditions”. This was only an alert, and not a fully-fledged El Niño declaration, but it had real-life consequences. Cattle farmers took these warnings seriously, as can be seen in the cattle prices. As the warnings came and fear of drought increased, farmers reacted and sold their stock, resulting in lower cattle prices for all. In September, “Bureau of Meteorology formally declares El Niño weather event, as hot and dry conditions sweep south-east Australia”. What do you think happened to cattle prices, they plummeted, robbing farmers of income all based on a prediction. …

And as we know, rains came in November, a lot of rain. “Major storm event on the horizon across Australia as El Niño takes a raincheck”. The media outlets were confused, “Why is Australia this wet in El Niño?”. According to the Bureau, November rainfall was well above average in many parts of Australia, with blue and purple indicating 200, 300, and even 400% of average rainfalls. For those farmers who still had some cattle to sell, prices understandably went up (a little bit), but still didn’t get back to initial prices seen before El Niño alerts were made.

Garry Edwards, Deputy Chair at Cattle Australia, said cattle prices are undervalued and spending all year talking about El Niño did not help. He said, “My personal opinion is that there’s been a chronic overreaction to the Bureau announcing El Niño. I think the Bureau potentially go earlier and stronger in those El Niño announcements than they might have in the past, which may force or encourage producers to make more significant and dramatic decisions earlier than what they’d previously make. There are no global indicators that support Australia’s cattle prices being so low. I expect prices to improve over the next two to six months.”

Meat and Livestock Australia Managing Director Jason Strong, who recently announced his resignation, also commented on the El Niño predictions, “This prospect of El Niño has been discussed since very early in the year. When it got declared it probably carried more weight in people’s thinking than it should have. The lesson for us is that people are going to respond to this information much quicker than ever before, so how do we make sure there’s better context around it and do that quicker?”

My opinion is that the Bureau should probably stick to more dependable predictions, such as daily and weekly forecasts, and weather warnings. Predictions made months, or even years ahead is a game fraught with danger, and as we saw with cattle prices, has real-life consequences. The ABC should probably stick to the news. This climate alarmism that they’ve been caught up in is essentially speculation and crystal ball gazing. But they can’t seem to help themselves. “Bureau of Meteorology and AFAC summer outlook looks hot across all corners of Australia, with heightened fire risk”. Summer will be hot? What sort of madness is this?

Look, all I need to know, and all we should expect from the Bureau of Meteorology is, “Do I need to bring an umbrella tomorrow?”, and “Can I wash my clothes on the weekend?”.

DID AUSTRALIA'S CATTLE INDUSTRY HAVE A 'CHRONIC OVERREACTION' TO THE EL NIÑO FORECAST?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-11-26/did-cattle-market-overreact-to-el-nino-forecast/103145824

MUSIC
Allégro by Emmit Fenn