US election: Haley’s supporters believe radically different things to Trump. | ePodcast

US election: Haley’s supporters believe radically different things to Trump. So where do they go next?
Published: February 22, 2024, 5.26 pm GMT
Source: The Conversation
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What happens next?
Trump’s de facto leadership of the Republican party was evident in his instrumental role in persuading Republican represenatives not to back a recent bipartisan immigration and foreign aid bill, which included aid for Ukraine and tougher controls at the Mexican border.

This forced Democrats to strip Ukraine aid out into a separate bill, which has now passed the Senate. The bill’s fate in the House, however, remains uncertain due to Trump loyalists.

Trump’s intervention came after months of good-faith negotiations between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate. Indeed, Republicans would have gained much of what they sought in terms of border security reforms. It is reasonable to assume that Trump’s influence over the party will continue to increase in the run-up to the 2024 election.

Trump faces 91 felony charges (some of which relate to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election) and civil liability for sexual assault and defamation, all of which he denies.

However, these challenges have not reduced his popularity among the Republican base. We also know from recent polling that Republicans are now more sympathetic to those who participated in the January 6 attack on the Capitol, than they were three years ago. They are also more likely to absolve Trump of responsibility relating to the attack.

If Trump’s status changes from presumptive to actual Republican nominee, the question will be whether Haley supporters will shift their allegiance to Trump (despite some radically different beliefs), choose a third party candidate, choose Biden or simply decide not to vote. The decisions of Haley supporters may have significant consequences not only for the 2024 election, but also for the health of American democracy.

For these reasons, the differences between Trump and Haley voters and why they matter warrant much more attention.
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