Economic, military indicators suggest Russia is preparing for large-scale war with NATO - ISW

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Some economic and military indicators suggest that Russia may be preparing for a large-scale conventional war with NATO, "likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited," the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its report.
Although not an imminent threat, the ISW assesses that Russian President Vladimir Putin's emphasis on growing Russia's economic and military capabilities is an indication that Russia is gearing up for conflict beyond "a protracted war in Ukraine."
Following Putin's rigged "victory" in the 2024 Russian presidential election, the Russian leader met with party faction leaders in the Russian State Duma, Russia's lower house, to emphasize Russia's priorities in growing the economy.
According to a readout released by the Kremlin, Putin emphasized the need to grow the "new elite" that will "will mature on the front," as opposed to supporting Russian oligarchs who have "lined their pockets" in amassing wealth through privatization and corruption after the fall of the Soviet Union.
The ISW suggests that by outlining a mandate to Russian political elites, Putin is likely seeking to "stabilize Russia's long-term financial position with increased government expenditure." Putin's willingness to risk his relationships with the wealthy strongmen who support him points to more expansive military ambitions.
Despite opposition from some Russian oligarchs at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, a shift to a war-time economy will reportedly grow Russia's gross domestic product by 2.6 percent this year, with 3.6 percent growth in 2023.
The ISW also assessed that an expansion of Russia's military capabilities, as well as military restructuring, are indicators that Russia is setting conditions for the possibility of future direct conflict with NATO.
The ISW gave no timeline as to when they believe a direct conflict with NATO may play out, noting that a timeline for Russia's preparedness to launch an attack against NATO is heavily reliant "on the financial resources Putin is willing to put against military efforts."

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