The Wire - May 7, 2024

//The Wire//1400Z May 7, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAEL BEGINS INVASION OF RAFAH, SEIZES BORDER CROSSING WITH EGYPT.//
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-International Events-
Europe: France states that claims of Foreign Legion soldiers deploying to Ukraine are false. However, the track record of French statements vs. actions is often very contradictory. For instance, Macron himself stated a few weeks ago that French soldiers may be required to deploy to Ukraine, before immediately recanting the statements and stating the opposite. AC: The initial claims of FFL soldiers being deployed to Ukraine are probably half-truths. Right now, France’s official stance is that no FFL soldiers are, or are planned to be, deployed in Ukraine. France also claims that these statements are “Russian disinformation”. This is likely half-true. Right now, almost every single NATO member has troops on the ground in Ukraine, under the excuse of being “advisors” or “observers”. Russian sources probably heard about a couple of battalions of French mercenaries being trained for service in Ukraine, but rather than waiting to embarrass France more directly, the initial sources lost credibility by fabricating details of the alleged deployment, citing details of specific units that are obviously false. France deploying a few hundred FFL soldiers to Ukraine is within reason, highly likely in any case, and has probably already happened. However, by failing to obtain hard evidence, reports of FFL soldiers in Ukraine remain unconfirmable, and easily walked-back by France in the event that these claims were indeed true in the first place. Now, only time will tell how true these claims were, or will be. In short, this story may have been “Russian disinformation” as France claims…but that doesn’t mean that elements of the story aren’t true.
Middle East: The Israeli invasion of Rafah has begun amid very high diplomatic tensions surrounding the proposed ceasefire agreement. Hamas rocket and IED attacks in the north have allegedly intensified following IDF combat actions in the south. IDF forces have conducted a pincer movement along the Philadelphi Corridor, seizing the Rafah Border Crossing and assaulting north into the suburbs of Rafah.
-HomeFront-
USA: Various protests and counter protests continue at various universities throughout the nation. Many of the more high-profile demonstrations and encampments have been cleared out, while others continue on a plethora of issues. The number of universities switching to online classes for the rest of the quarter/semester continues to grow, as do the list of universities that have canceled graduation ceremonies altogether.
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Analyst Comments: Though details are impossible to verify, a complex situation appears to have developed surrounding the recent peace talks in Israel. Hamas has claimed that they actually agreed to Israel’s terms (for the most part, including the return of 33 Israeli hostages, the exact number sought by Israel). However, even as the deal was being considered, Israeli troops were in the process of invading Rafah. At the moment, even some Israeli media sources are claiming that Netanyahu never planned for the ceasefire to go through, and made outlandish demands in Israel’s peace proposal with the intent of Hamas denying the deal. Hamas called Israel’s bluff, and actually did agree to almost all of Israel’s demands. As such, many media groups are claiming that Netanyahu is continuing the war solely to save his own government, and that Hamas has been willing to enact a truce for some time. Whether or not these claims are true remains to be seen, however from a possibly criminally-neutral standpoint, the latest assault on Rafah appears to be intended to torpedo the peace deal, and keep the war going for as long as possible.
As the Israeli invasion of Rafah continues, little has been heard from Egypt. As a reminder, Egypt has repeatedly stated that the Israeli occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor, or the seizure of the Rafah Border Crossing is a “red line”. However, Egypt has a long history of failing to uphold their “red line” issues. Similarly, the nations of Jordan and Syria have issued the diplomatic equivalent of a strongly-worded email to Israel concerning their actions in Gaza.
Analyst: S2A1
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