Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Doesn't Have a Snowball's Chance in Hell of Achieving a Soft Landing

Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth to the show to discuss de-dollarization and its implications for the US economy. Danielle argues that while concerns over countries moving away from the US dollar system have been ongoing for a long time, the US dollar remains dominant in global transactions due to its vast liquidity pool and lack of competition. She advises investors to diversify during financial crises instead of doubling down on dollars. The conversation touches upon the Federal Reserve's actions, with Danielle expressing concerns about potential policy errors regarding inflation and outdated data usage.

Danielle discusses employment statistics, mentioning that hard data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) plays a significant role in revisions to non-farm payrolls and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). She expresses concern over the Fed's reliance on outdated data and potential late action. The conversation also covers concerns about risks for regional banks, rising bankruptcy rates, and imminent student loan delinquencies.

She also discusses signs of a potential recession, including slowdown in credit card spending, increasing charge offs, and decreasing employment levels. Despite some optimistic predictions, she express skepticism due to the weak economic foundation and the Fed's role in combatting inflation with varying opinions on its likelihood.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:45 - Dedollarization Trends
2:47 - Global Dollar Trade
5:49 - Reserves and Data
8:57 - Fed & Global C.B. Cuts
10:49 - Fed & 2024 Elections
12:55 - Consumer 'Health'
13:58 - Fed Revisions & Data Lag
19:44 - Bankruptcies & Inflation
23:44 - Problems Not Priced-In
25:27 - Regional Banking Risk
28:47 - Bigger Banks & Losses
32:52 - Credit Card Spending
34:52 - Deep Long Recession?
37:40 - Fed - Hard Landing
38:55 - Inflation Targeting
41:09 - Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode
- The US dollar's dominance in global transactions is due to its vast liquidity pool and lack of competition.
- Investors are advised to diversify during financial crises instead of relying on dollars.
- Concerns over the Fed's policy errors, outdated data usage, and potential late action in addressing economic issues.

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
Website: https://quillintelligence.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.

DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.

Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.

A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.

Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.