Class 12: Psychic Card Guessing & The Proportional Syllogism

Lesson 11: Psychic Card Guessing & The Proportional Syllogism
Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science

We solve the psychic guessing cards problem, and then, at long last, return to assigning numbers of probability. We do this using the proportional syllogism. We learn that adding necessary truths to Qs (or any logical argument) does not change their conclusions or probabilities.

Homework: Q = "The Metalunan interoctor (a die) must take one of 6 states when tossed: s1 = 1, s2 = 2, and so on." P = "It takes state s6 = 6". What is Pr(P | Q & "fair die")? (We add "fair die" to the Q.)

All questions will be answered in the following Monday's lecture.

Written lecture: https://www.wmbriggs.com/post/51979/
https://wmbriggs.substack.com/

Permanent class page: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/