Class 14: No "UNfair" Dice & 1, 2, 3, Many!

Lesson 14: No "UNfair" Dice & 1, 2, 3, Many!
Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science

Last week's homework was recalling Pr(M_6|E) = 1/6, and we did Pr(M_6|E + "fair") = 1/6 (a circular argument!). Now give us Pr(M_6|E + "unfair") = ? We learn that there is no answer! It depends on what you bring to the word UNFAIR. There is no definite meaning.

Which brings up our TWO MOST IMPORTANT PROBABILITY LESSONS. (1) CHANGE THE EVIDENCE, CHANGE THE PROBABILITY. (2) PROBABILITY IS NOT REALITY: OUR UNCERTAINTY OF THINGS ARE NOT THE THINGS THEMSELVES.

See also the main site for a link to my other (free!) book so you can learn counting. Or download here:

https://www.wmbriggs.com/public/briggs_breaking_law_averages.pdf

HOMEWORK: (A) How many TOTAL groups can you get from groups of 5 from the numbers 1 through 70 AND one group of 1 from the numbers 1 through 25? (B) Which gives a higher TOTAL number of groups? Adding 19 numbers to the first batch (so we have 1 through 99), or we keep the 70 but choose groups of 6 instead of 5?

All questions will be answered in the following Monday's lecture.

Written lecture: https://www.wmbriggs.com/post/52506/
https://wmbriggs.substack.com/

Permanent class page: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/