Class 19: Probability Is Not Subjective

Lesson 19: Probability Is Not Subjective

Probability is not opinion; your feelings have nothing to do with probability. All probability is of the form Pr(A|B). The A and B are subjective, but "Pr(A|B)" itself is rigorously objective. We show why this is a big deal.

HOMEWORK: Read Uncertainty Chaper 5 excerpt.

All questions will be answered in the following Monday's lecture.

Written lecture:
https://www.wmbriggs.com/post/52962/
https://wmbriggs.substack.com/p/148114398

Jaynes's book (first part): https://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf

Permanent class page: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/

Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science