The Wire - September 19, 2024

//The Wire//2200Z September 19, 2024//
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//BLUF: ISRAEL SHIFTS FORCES TO NORTHERN FRONT. INCIDENT CAUSES INJURIES AT TRUMP EVENT.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: This afternoon, following the second wave of Israeli IED attacks throughout Lebanon, Israeli forces announced the creation of a northern front campaign, and a shifting of resources to the northern border with Lebanon. Local Israeli media has claimed that the ground invasion of Lebanon has begun, however it is not clear as to if this indicates a total ground invasion of Lebanon, or a more limited border incursion.
AC: Israeli media is often exuberant in their descriptions of military activities, so even if Israeli media is claiming an invasion is occurring, the scale of such remains uncertain. Either way, this confirms with as much certainty as we’re going to get that the targeting efforts of the past two days are part of a larger campaign that is yet to come. More immediately, Israeli aerial targeting of dozens of locations around Lebanon is already occurring and has been fairly regular throughout the day (alongside Hezbollah’s rocket attacks). Whatever Israel has planned as part of a larger operation will likely take place very soon as it’s clear that a defacto state of war already exists between Israel and Lebanon.
-HomeFront-
Arizona: Reports have begun to mount concerning a possible incident at Trump’s rally in Tucson last week. Local media reports the hospitalization of several people (some reports claim as many as 20 people have been hospitalized), all due to vision problems and eye irritation that began to manifest shortly after Trump’s rally. Some victims have reported temporary blindness. The victims of this incident were all congregated together on stage, seated in the area to Trump’s right.
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Analyst Comments: Though the information sources regarding the Tucson incident are few, considering the current extremely high-risk threat environment a little leeway must be granted; Speculation is all that is available to the public to assess future threats in this specific case. Local media reports suggest this may have been due to exposure to some sort of chemical weapon. This is supported by the treatment efforts undertaken by local medical facilities, which treated the victims for varying types of exposure to hazardous chemicals. However, considering the environmental sensors that should be in use by the USSS, this incident probably did not involve the use of Chemical Warfare Agents (CWA). However, these symptoms are in line with other deliberate targeting efforts. High-power infrared lasers, invisible to the unaided human eye, can cause immediate blindness and burning sensations similar to what the victims reported. This could easily be medically diagnosed with an eye examination, which will be important to consider as more information becomes public regarding this incident. More broadly, this incident aligns with historic reports of Directed Energy Weapon (DEW) use, with the symptoms experienced by the victims aligning somewhat with those of Havana Syndrome. However, this possibility would be nearly impossible to prove, and is purely speculative at this time.
Analyst: S2A1
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