The Wire - September 25, 2024

//The Wire//2000Z September 25, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY CONTINUES IN NEW YORK. IED DETONATES IN CALIFORNIA COURTHOUSE. ISRAEL CONTINUES PREPARATION FOR INVASION OF LEBANON.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: Conflict continues to escalate as before. Overnight a drone attack originating from Iraq was carried out on a small Israeli outpost in the Negev desert, causing severe damage. In Israel, growing rhetoric suggests that the IDF is reaching the final stages of readiness for a ground invasion of Lebanon.
Syria: Air defenses reportedly intercepted roughly a dozen Israeli missiles overnight. AC: Some reports indicate that the interception of these missiles was not undertaken by Syria, but by Russian forces stationed at their naval base in Tartus. Though this cannot be verified at this time, if true, this would present a substantial move by Russia to become more deliberately involved in the rapidly escalating war.
Red Sea/HOA: CENTCOM claims to have destroyed another Houthi long-range drone in the Red Sea.
Germany: A man was beaten to death near the Old Botanical Garden in Munich overnight. The group of assailants remains at large.
Russia: During a meeting of the Security Council, President Putin proposed a change to Russia’s first strike nuclear policy. Specifically, he stated that “It is proposed that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation”.
AC: In short, this proposal would change Russia’s nuclear stance to consider attacks by Ukraine (as aided by NATO) to be treated the same as a first-strike by a nuclear power...exactly the situation that Russia is facing right now. Though anything regarding the use nuclear weapons is largely a debate, this is probably concerning nonetheless. Generally speaking, the entire Cold War was predicated on the idea of a mutual, simultaneous nuclear attack, with both sides mostly adopting the position of “I won’t launch if you won’t”. Now, if Russia is considering a conventional attack that is aided by a nuclear power to be a first-strike itself, this probably will cause great controversy within the field of strategic arms limitation efforts.
-HomeFront-
Ohio – Yesterday afternoon a rail car began leaking styrene gas in Whitewater township west of Cincinnati. Local evacuations were recommended due to the hazards posed by the gas leak.
Florida: In a post made on social media this morning, Donald Trump specifically blamed Iran for “threats on (his) life”. AC: This morning, the United States’ Secretary of Commerce (and former Governor of Rhode Island) Gina Raimondo stated that Trump needed to be “extinguished for good” during a media interview. Not 72 hours ago, a group of 741 former “intelligence professionals” signed a letter endorsing Kamala Harris, including some of which who took part in what has become known as the Russia-gate hoax. As such it’s highly likely that the alleged Iranian threats to Trump are inaccurate or over-emphasized considering the other more domestic threats Trump openly faces nearly daily.
New York: The United Nations General Assembly continues this week amid growing protests from a wide variety of interest groups. Most protests have involved Israel, Palestine, India, Ghana, and Cuba, all regarding various issues in these nations.
California: This afternoon an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) was detonated inside a courtroom at the Santa Maria courthouse. Two people were wounded in the blast, and one suspect was arrested.
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Analyst Comments: The California IED attack is the latest in a string of attacks throughout the state involving explosives. On August 28th EOD personnel were dispatched to render safe an explosive device that was likely intended to destroy the Pit River Bridge. The device failed to detonate completely, causing the discovery by authorities. One week prior, EOD personnel were dispatched in Los Angeles to render safe four Russian hand grenades that were emplaced in a tree in Baldwin Park.
Analyst: S2A1
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