Preference Cascade

Both polling and betting averages have now switched over to favor Donald Trump to win the 2024 presidential election. We may be seeing the same sort of preference cascade that we saw with the Reagan-Carter race in 1980, where the electorate shifted strongly in the last two weeks of the campaign. Democrats, for the last weeks of the election campaign, have fallen back on their tried and true tactic of characterizing the Republican candidate as a devotee of 1930s Germany. Meanwhile, after three months into her campaign, Kamala Harris still can't explain why anyone should vote for her.