The Wire - January 14, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z January 14, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROTESTS CONTINUE IN ROMANIA. CALIFORNIA WILDFIRE CONTAINMENT SLOWLY INCREASING AMID HIGH-WIND PREDICTIONS.//

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-International Events-

Romania: Protests continue throughout Bucharest following Friday's court ruling that annulled the November 24 election. On Friday the Constitutional Court rejected the results of the first round of elections due to alleged Russian interference, on the grounds that one of the candidates had received "preferential treatment" on social media platforms.

-HomeFront-

USA: Yesterday, DJI (the major consumer-grade drone manufacturer) announced a change of their geofencing policies for their drones. Previously, the company itself maintained software limitations on where drones could and could not fly. For instance, users using the standard DJI software for casual drone use would not be allowed to fly in certain No Fly Zones, as the drone itself (if it had an accurate GPS position) would not fly in some areas. This policy change from DJI removed these hard software limits and placed the ultimate responsibility on the end user (where it always was anyway).

California: The Palisades Fire was 17% contained as of this morning, and the Eaton Fire was reported as 35% contained as well. AC: The intensity of both fires has dropped significantly due to light winds and significant firefighting efforts throughout the past few days. However, as high winds are still expected overnight, increased vigilance is recommended as rapid fire expansion remains a possibility.

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Analyst Comments: As is common throughout Europe, the situation in Romania regarding the recent election scandal is vastly more complex than meets the eye. The alleged "Russian interference" largely amounts to the "far-right" candidate (Calin Georgescu) being very popular on social media, and this popularity being grounds for a dismissal of the election. As one might imagine, this has resulted in widespread demonstrations as it's concrete confirmation that the election process itself was NOT tampered with...but rather that popularity itself is now illegal. Even if Russia did artificially boost analytics to essentially campaign on Georgescu's behalf (as is being claimed)...this isn't usually considered to be illegal. Now, the court tossing out an entire election because Russia bought some ads to promote the candidate that would be favorable to Russia has tainted the entire electoral process, at least in the eyes of many Romanians.

Considering the long history of superpowers tampering in elections, this case sets an interesting precedent. Namely, that if the election process itself is secure, but an outcome is arrived at that power-players in government don't like...they can just throw out the results anyway. Remember, the election process itself (the counting of votes) is NOT what is alleged to have been tampered with. So far in this case, the alleged interference is simply that the undesirable candidate won in the first round of voting. Of course, it is quite obvious that Russia seeks to promote candidates that have a pro-Russia (or at least not an anti-Russia) stance. Somewhat ironically, all of this debate so far has centered around Georgescu being too popular...so his popularity must be due to the Russians.

Regarding DJI's removal of geofencing within their devices' firmware, this decision on DJI's part has resulted in substantial panic among those concerned with terrorism, as one of the major software limitations preventing unauthorized drone use has been removed. This is true to some extent, however the scale of such is hard to predict. For instance, many DJI products could already be flown in unauthorized areas with little modification. Some companies have even sprung up offering replacement DJI firmware for sale, which would remove these geofencing points anyway. What this decision will result in at the moment is more nuisance activity, which itself will probably be used as grounds for more drone regulation in the US at some point. Generally speaking, drones are powerful tools that bring significant capabilities to the table for malign actors and prepared citizens alike. However, as with any tool, parties on all sides will seek to shape the narrative in their favor. Some will claim that this move by DJI presents a significant terrorism risk. Others will say that threat is overexaggerated since DJI drones aren't really the types of drones that insurgents might most successfully use. Others will take the chance to bang the war drum in some way, probably to drive up paranoia regarding anything that comes out of China. What almost no one will do, however, is examine the risk, assess the risk, and take measures to mitigate it depending on one's specific use case.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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