Trader Ferg: All Roads Lead to Inflation

In this Palisades interview, host Tom welcomes Trader Ferg, a full-time trader and author of the Trader Ferg Substack, discussing major narrative pivots in the energy market, focusing on topics like electric vehicles versus plug-in hybrids, net-zero projections, China's policy changes on renewable energy subsidies, battery technology shifts from lithium-ion to sodium-ion batteries, platinum group metals, geopolitical impacts like coal's comeback in Germany, and investment implications.

Ferg also delves into the transformative potential of deep learning AI models, expressing excitement about their game-changing impact on technology and markets. Among these innovations, Ferg points to DeepSeek, an open-source AI model that is disrupting the tech industry and challenging major companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook, potentially leading to significant declines in their valuations.

Ferg also discusses platinum's unique market dynamics, noting its unpredictable demand and jurisdictional risks, particularly in key producing regions like South Africa. He emphasizes that new platinum supply is expected to remain limited after 2030. Declining production rates are also affecting industries such as oil and uranium. Despite these challenges, Ferg advises investors to maintain patience and position themselves strategically for future demand.

Ferg identifies under-invested sectors, particularly the U.S. oil and gas industry, as opportunities for growth. He argues that while drilling activity will likely increase during Trump's second term, supply numbers have been overestimated, and demand remains steady but not overly strong. Additionally, Trump's plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could create further demand. Ferg expresses his bullish outlook on oil plays in the market, despite current low prices.

In conclusion, Ferg's investment strategy focuses on identifying major narrative shifts, understanding supply decline rates, and positioning investments to capitalize on demand when markets price it appropriately.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:00 - Narratives & Pivots
5:30 - Coal & Green Transitions?
10:48 - Tariffs & Chinese EVs
14:46 - China's A.I. Model
21:04 - Sector Valuations?
25:39 - Platinum Supply
31:48 - Drill Baby Drill!
37:03 - Trump & Inflation Risks
42:00 - Gold, Rates, & Treasuries
46:00 - Gold ETF Holdings
48:43 - Resource Investment Risk
54:00 - Derisking & Hated Sectors
56:56 - Resource Costs & Inflation
59:00 - Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/trader_ferg

Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.