The Wire - January 29, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z January 29, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES TO ESCALATE IN THE DRC. PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES PLAN TO SEND ILLEGALS TO GITMO. F-35 CRASHES IN ALASKA, PILOT UNHARMED.//

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-International Events-

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): Rioting continues throughout Kinshasa as the rebel advance in the east becomes more solidified. Overnight, M23 rebels consolidated control of Goma on the eastern border of the DRC, with some reports indicating further advances being planned. South of Kivu Lake, another axis of advance has possibly opened up, as locals report M23 forces in the vicinity of Bukavu. In the west, factional violence has broken out in force.

-HomeFront-

Alaska: One F-35 aircraft assigned to the 354th Fighter Wing crashed at Eielson Air Force Base near Fairbanks yesterday afternoon. Video footage of the incident indicates that the pilot was able to eject before impact. No official statement has been released indicating the cause for the aviation mishap.

Washington D.C. - President Trump announced plans to house captured illegal immigrants at the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, while deportation operations continue. AC: While not exactly a new plan (this idea was floated during Trump's campaign) this facility will reportedly house the most violent offenders, which are unable to be housed in the standard minimum-security detention facilities that most other illegal immigrants are housed in. This is probably an attempt to separate out the baddest-of-the-bad from the general population.

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Analyst Comments: In the DRC, various groups who oppose Rwanda (and the M23 rebels) have taken to the streets to attack any ally of their arch enemy. Since the capital of Kinshasa is located 1,000 miles from M23's advance (and thus nowhere near the warzone), those who oppose M23 have taken out their anger locally, in the form of attacking anyone who is aligned with Rwanda or the Tutsi ethnic group, such as international diplomatic missions in the DRC. Various government offices were also ransacked overnight as well. Other than the general call to evacuate, most diplomatic missions in Kinshasa have not really addressed the growing violence, or provided much information on the status of foreign nationals (or international humanitarian efforts) in the DRC.

Of note, this afternoon the Rwandan Defense Forces social media account posted a statement regarding the capture of 280 Romanians who were allegedly acting as mercenaries for the DRC's armed forces. This somewhat innocent post is largely a de facto admission that the M23 "rebels" are really just mercenaries acting on behalf off Rwanda to invade the DRC. This has been known for some time, however the increasingly casual descriptions of this relationship must be noted as this has the potential to drag other nations into this fight at some point, if the "soft" invasion becomes more methodical or deliberate.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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