The U.S. Economy Is In Serious Trouble | David Rosenberg and Jimmy Connor

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Here’s a 10-bullet-point summary of David Rosenberg - The State of the Economy

Market Volatility & Passive Investing Risks – Rosenberg warns that if panic sets in, passive ETF flows could reverse dramatically, leading to severe market disruptions.

Discrepancy in Economic Data – While government data suggests strong economic growth (3.1% GDP, 256,000 new jobs), private-sector surveys and the Fed’s Beige Book indicate a much weaker economy, closer to 1% GDP growth.

Uncertainty with Policies – potential return introduces unpredictability in economic policy, particularly regarding tariffs, immigration, and corporate tax cuts.

Skepticism About Inflation Concerns – Despite claims from some analysts, Rosenberg argues that past policies did not lead to inflation and that current fears may be overblown.

Unemployment Trends – The unemployment rate has risen from 3.5% to 4.1%, with expectations of reaching 4.5%–5% by year-end. Full-time job growth has stagnated, with more workers shifting to part-time employment.

Yield Curve & Fiscal Policy Impact – The recent yield curve steepening is driven by fiscal uncertainty rather than inflation expectations. The market is reacting to persistent high deficits rather than economic overheating.

Tariffs & Inflation Debate – While tariffs may cause short-term price increases, Rosenberg argues they do not create sustained inflation unless they are continuously raised over time.

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