Germany Election Shock: Merz Warns of Far-Right Surge as 'Final Wake-Up Call'

The rise in support for the far right in Germany’s federal elections was "the last warning" for the country’s mainstream parties to provide effective leadership, said Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative CDU/CSU alliance and likely the next German chancellor.

Speaking on Monday after his coalition secured 28.5% of the vote and emerged victorious, Merz emphasized the need for centrist parties to take seriously the surge in support for the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD).

"This is really the last warning for the democratic central parties in Germany to come to joint solutions," Merz declared at a press conference.

The AfD won more than 20% of the vote, about double its share in the last election three years ago. However, due to Germany’s traditional political "firewall" against far-right parties, the AfD will not be included in coalition negotiations.

On Monday, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel called the result "historic" and criticized Merz’s refusal to form a coalition with her party, labeling it a "democracy blockade" and arguing that millions of voters were being excluded from governance.

Forming a New Government

Instead, Merz will begin negotiations to form a new government with the Social Democrats (SPD), the party of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, potentially establishing a "grand coalition" (GroKo).

Together, CDU/CSU and SPD won enough seats for a parliamentary majority. Meanwhile, smaller parties, such as the pro-business FDP and the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), failed to meet the 5% threshold required to enter parliament.

Migration policy will be one of the key challenges for the coalition, as significant differences exist between the parties. Merz highlighted the AfD’s gains in eastern Germany, where the party won 45 out of 48 available seats, advocating an anti-immigration and "remigration" platform.

"We must work together to solve Germany’s problems and gradually deprive this party of its breeding ground," Merz stated.

International Challenges and Market Reactions

Merz also focused on international issues, particularly the conflict in Ukraine. In a post on social media platform X, he reaffirmed Europe’s support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, indirectly criticizing the Trump administration for initiating peace talks that excluded Ukraine and Europe.

Regarding relations with the U.S. under a possible Trump presidency, Merz expressed his intent to maintain strong transatlantic ties but warned that "all signals coming from the United States indicate that interest in Europe is decreasing."

Meanwhile, financial markets reacted positively to the conservative victory, with shares of major German companies rising amid hopes for a stable government after a period of political stagnation.

Expectations for the Coalition and Germany’s Future

Merz aims to form a new government by Easter (April 20/21), although official negotiations will not begin until March 6. Outgoing Chancellor Scholz called the SPD’s result—just 16% of the vote—"bitter."

Analysts suggest that voter dissatisfaction with the SPD’s migration policy was the main reason for its decline. The party lost 1.7 million voters to the conservatives and 720,000 to the AfD.

Merz is betting on convincing the SPD to accept radical migration reforms similar to those proposed by the CDU/CSU, including closing borders to so-called irregular migration. He controversially secured AfD support for such measures in parliament in January, sparking backlash from the SPD.

The challenge now is to form a coalition that not only ensures stability but also weakens the far-right’s rise, a task that may shape Germany’s political landscape for years to come.

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