S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday February 25, 2025

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Summary of the market update for Monday, February 24, 2025, and the outlook for Tuesday, February 25, 2025:
On Monday, the market opened higher, with the SPX futures up about 0.5%, suggesting a potential bounce after Friday's options expiration sell-off. However, the optimism faded quickly. Within 10 minutes, the intraday high was set at 6046, followed by a decline that took the market below the unchanged level into negative territory. It hit a low near the S1 support level of 5976, briefly rebounded to positive, but then stalled and closed near the day's low, down 0.5%. This late-day selling, attributed to "Smart Money," confirmed a shift to negative momentum in both the short and intermediate terms, as the S&P fell below its 50-day moving average. The long-term trend remains positive, but the market is showing signs of turning defensive, with a rotation from growth to value stocks like staples and healthcare.
Key factors influencing the market included seasonal weakness in late February, geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, German election), and policy concerns like tariffs and executive orders. Interest rates dropped to 4.39% from 4.42%, reflecting a flight to quality into bonds, while the dollar rose, adding pressure on stocks. Sentiment shifted from neutral to negative (29 from 35 on Friday), and technical indicators like the Parabolic SAR turned bearish, though some, like the Vortex, showed slight improvement. Volume was above average, signaling conviction in the moves.
Apple was a bright spot, up 0.63% with plans to invest $500 billion domestically, possibly earning a tariff exemption. However, other Mega-Caps like Nvidia (-3%), Tesla (-2%), and Amazon lagged. Sector performance was mixed, with defensive areas (healthcare, real estate, staples) outperforming, while growth sectors (tech, discretionary) weakened. Small and Mid-Caps continued to struggle, with the Russell 2000 dropping below its 200-day moving average.
Looking to Tuesday, the outlook is cautious. The market is oversold short-term, which could lead to a bounce per seasonal patterns, but momentum and bias remain negative. Upcoming economic data (housing prices, consumer confidence) and ongoing geopolitical risks could sway direction. Key levels to watch include the S&P’s 100-day moving average and Pivot Points, with a break below potentially signaling further downside. The long-term bull market, now two years old, remains intact, but the shift to a defensive posture suggests a breather rather than an immediate reversal.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gNV13M9ILm-lvhlihGbJRoqLpDiOJtUA/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!