S&P 500 Weekly Market Update for March 3-7, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com/
Summary of the weekly market update for February 24th–28th, 2025, with the outlook for March 3rd–7th:
The market faced pressure during the week, declining 0.98% overall, driven by a significant sell-off on Thursday (-1.59%) that was largely offset by a Friday bounce (+1.59%). Despite the late-week recovery, momentum has been weak since the start of 2025, with the short- and intermediate-term trends turning negative, though the long-term outlook remains positive. The S&P 500 ended the week near Wednesday’s levels, effectively erasing Thursday and Friday’s volatility, while the NASDAQ hit its 200-day moving average on Friday, triggering the rebound. Volume was above average, suggesting solid participation.
A shift from Growth to Defensive Sectors (e.g., staples) is underway, though it’s unclear if this is temporary or a longer-term trend. Inflation concerns are rising, fueled by tariff proposals (set to start March 4th for Canada, Mexico, and China) and a negative GDP Now forecast (-1.5% from +2.3%). Political uncertainty, including a heated Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, added noise, but the market focused on Friday’s friendly Core PCE report (+0.3%). Interest rates fell for the week to 4.23% (from 4.42%), reflecting a flight to quality, while the dollar rose and oil dipped below $70.
For the week, the Dow gained 1%, but the NASDAQ (-3.5%), S&P (-1%), and small caps (-1.5%) declined. The Tech and Discretionary sectors struggled, with NVIDIA’s solid earnings report being poorly received (-7.1%), dragging Mega Caps lower. Sentiment is extremely negative, potentially signaling a contrarian buying opportunity, though the VIX remains elevated (above 19). The 10-year to 3-month yield curve is inverted again, raising recession flags, but employment strength and other data may temper those fears.
Looking to March 3rd–7th, the short- and intermediate-term outlook stays negative, with the Friday bounce needing follow-through past the S&P 500’s 100-period moving average which is acting as resistance. The long-term trend holds positive, supported by seasonal strength (March averages +1%, up 65% of the time). Key events include the ISM Manufacturing report on Monday and the critical Employment Situation Report on Friday, alongside tariff developments. The market’s direction hinges on whether support levels hold or weakness deepens amid ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Link to PDF of Slides and Charts used in this video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cbzmddsoNlq47V0CRJp5ci4tE7pnRqqL/view?usp=sharing
Link to The SPX Investing Program Overview Video: https://youtu.be/rkvOOZxMW00?si=FPT-g7SXzPo-MdW8

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!