S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday March 4, 2025

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Summary of the "Daily Update" for March 3rd and outlook for March 4th, 2025:
On Monday, March 3rd, the stock market experienced a volatile day, opening higher but quickly setting the day's high before declining. The NASDAQ fell below its 200-day moving average, while the NASDAQ 100 held above its 200-day moving average. The S&P 500 dropped 1.76% on above-average volume, closing below key support levels such as the daily pivot (5917) and S1 (5875), finding some support at Friday’s S2 level. Selling intensified after the "Smart Money" entered post-lunch, reflecting a negative shift driven by weaker-than-expected economic data (e.g., ISM Manufacturing at 50.3 vs. expected 50.7) and geopolitical concerns. Growth stocks were hit hard, with a defensive rotation into Value and Staples evident. The VIX spiked to 22.78, signaling increased fear, while interest rates fell as investors sought safety in bonds.
Looking to Tuesday, March 4th, the markets face uncertainty with new tariffs set to begin—25% on Canada and Mexico, and an increase from 10% to 20% on China—confirmed by President Trump, who will address Congress that evening. No major economic reports are due, but seasonality suggests a choppy or negative day. The market is oversold short-term but remains negative in the short and intermediate term, though the long-term trend is still positive. Key levels to watch include the NASDAQ 100’s 200-day moving average and the S&P 500’s potential test of its own 200-day moving average. Geopolitical developments, particularly around Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. policy, could sway sentiment further.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HtmcCGkzCufYI4UMimcA2SNGE2x2sNOz/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!