S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday March 7, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com/
Summary of the Daily Update for Thursday, March 6th, 2025, regarding the stock market's performance and outlook:
The stock market experienced another down day, erasing the subtle improvements seen after Wednesday. The S&P 500 dropped below the 200-day moving average but closed slightly above it, down 1.78% on above-average volume. The NASDAQ is in correction territory, down over 10%, while the S&P 500 is down about 6.5% from its high. The market is at a tipping point ahead of Friday's critical employment situation report.
Key points:
The market opened lower down to 5750, rebounded to 5800, then declined again.
The short and intermediate-term trends are negative; the long-term remains positive but could shift if weakness persists.
Interest rates are rising (10-year yield at 4.29%), and the dollar is weakening, decoupling from recent stock movements.
Political and geopolitical concerns (tariffs, government cuts, Gaza tensions) are unsettling the market.
The VIX (fear gauge) is at 24.87, indicating heightened fear; several technical indicators show oversold conditions.
Mega-cap growth stocks and sectors such as Tech and Discretionary underperformed, while defensive sectors (staples, energy) held up better.
Economic data showed a larger-than-expected trade deficit (-131.4B), lower jobless claims (221K vs. 234K expected), and higher productivity (1.5% vs. 1.2% expected).
Outlook for Friday, March 7th:
The employment report could drive a significant market reaction, depending on its strength or weakness.
The market is teetering on the 200-day moving average, with potential support levels below if it breaks.
Sentiment is extremely negative, which could act as a contrarian signal, but momentum remains downward.
Seasonality suggests a mixed outlook for early March, with historical data showing potential for recovery but current conditions overriding optimism.
Overall, the market is in a precarious state—negative in the short and intermediate term, oversold in some aspects, and awaiting a catalyst from Friday’s data to determine its next move.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CgCk8T9-4kMfS6a3nwCZGfpwCss4lYt6/view?usp=sharing
My Exclusive Free Workshop: The Four P's of Building a Successful Investing Program → https://spxinvesting.mailchimpsites.com
Free Stock Market Course: https://youtu.be/Bl8XZh1t3DI
Blog: https://spxinvestingblog.com
Facebook Private Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/667271964721864
DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!