The Wire - March 7, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z March 7, 2025//
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//BLUF: GERMANY BEGINS REARMAMENT CAMPAIGN ALONG WITH POLAND. FACTIONAL VIOLENCE ESCALATES IN SYRIA.//

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-International Events-

Europe: Rearmament campaigns have intensified over the past few days among most Western-oriented nations. Germany has announced plans to double their defense budget, raising their defense cost to roughly €100 billion per year. This is in addition to a €500 billion investment in their infrastructure. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the implementation of a nationwide training program to prepare all adult males in the country for war.

AC: As this announcement was rather surprising, many questions remain on what PM Tusk is planning to implement. At the moment this doesn't appear to be a traditional military draft or general mobilization, but a mandatory training plan/curriculum that all adult males of Polish nationality will be required to complete. Tusk also announced that he plans to more than double the size of the standing Polish military, from 200,000 to 500,000.

Syria: Following the fall of the Assad regime a few weeks ago, the establishment of a new regime by HTS has resulted in the situation deteriorating further. Groups of HTS militants have descended into engaging in random violence, often times with no clear end goal other than the murder of their perceived enemies.

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Analyst Comments: In Syria, the situation remains fairly complicated. However, right now the extreme levels of violence can mostly be summed up as the new HTS regime eradicating their enemies or anyone that challenges their rule.

Some anti-HTS social media accounts have indicated that the Alawite community is being ethnically cleansed from Syria, with much evidence supporting the mass execution of primarily Alawite communities. However, as usual in the Middle East, much investigative effort will be required to verify the details as claimed on social media. What is abundantly clear, however, is that many people are being systemically murdered en masse by the HTS regime in Syria, mostly in the form of mob violence which is becoming increasingly more organized and deliberate.

Other points of consideration are the steadily-increasing border incursions from neighboring nations. As a reminder, both Israel and Turkey openly invaded Syria during the collapse of the Assad regime (taking advantage of the chaos of the HTS advance). Though details are impossible to verify with any veracity, some data (from Israeli sources) suggest that the IDF has consolidated a substantial border expansion into Syria, which in some cases may be dozens of miles. Likewise, in the north the Turkish incursion continues. However, far less information is available to determine exactly how much of Syria that Turkey has carved out for themselves (This is also complicated by Turkey's long history of creating a buffer zone in the north, which was somewhat agreed upon when Assad was in power) However, in response to both incursions, HTS has done nothing at all. This is probably out of fear of poking the bear too much. However, as time goes on (and the incursions into Syria continue), this dynamic will be interesting to observe.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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