S&P 500 Weekly Update for March 10-14, 2025

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Summary of the Weekly Video Update transcript for the week of March 3rd-7th, 2025, with a look ahead to March 10th-14th:
The stock market experienced a rough week, with the S&P 500 down 3.1%, the Dow down 2.4%, the NASDAQ down 3.5%, and small caps (Russell) down 4%. The decline would have been steeper without a bounce on Friday. Key concerns weighing on the market include inflation fears, economic growth worries, tariffs, and executive orders, contributing to uncertainty since early December 2024. A shift from growth to value stocks has been observed, signaling a more defensive market stance.
Market performance showed weakness, with above-average trading volume and technical deterioration on the weekly charts, including a potential negative trend in the ADX (green line below red, red rising). Interest rates rose, with the 10-year yield climbing from 4.23% to 4.32%, while the U.S. dollar weakened significantly. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks continued to struggle, amplifying growth concerns.
Tariffs escalated tensions, with 25% tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico (partially revised under USMCA exemptions until April 2nd) and 20% on China, prompting retaliatory threats and fears of inflation and economic fallout. Economic reports were mixed: weaker-than-expected data contrasted with some resilience, such as declining jobless claims. The SPX briefly dipped below the 200-day moving average but closed above it on Friday.
Looking ahead, key inflation reports (CPI and PPI) due in the week of March 10th-14th will be critical. Corporate profits remain positive but are declining (e.g., from 12% to 8%), and recession probabilities are rising slightly (Goldman Sachs up from 15% to 20%, Bloomberg at 25%). Sentiment is notably pessimistic, with the VIX above 20 and climbing, though some indicators suggest potential for a bounce if extremes are reached.
Sector performance showed healthcare as the only positive sector (defensive), while tech and discretionary lagged. The market is grappling with a confusing mix of signals—some technical indicators remain long-term positive (e.g., above the 50-week moving average), but short- and intermediate-term momentum is weakening. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast turned negative, unnerving markets, though the New York Fed’s estimate remains positive at 2.67%.
In summary, the market is under pressure from macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with a defensive tilt and technical fragility. The upcoming week’s data will be pivotal in determining whether these trends deepen or stabilize.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KzbjSSJB0cRGU2HvEwIj9cl2q-O1fbt1/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!